SOUTH AFRICA – The South African Port of Durban has received its first shipment of imported white maize since March 2017, with the bulk carrier African Baza, under the Bahamas flag, offloading 23,700 tons of white maize produced in the United States.
According to Dr. André van der Vyver, executive director of the South African Cereals and Oilseeds Trade Association (Sacota), an additional vessel, carrying 46,000 tonnes of white maize, is expected to arrive in February.
The necessity for these imports stems from a substantial decline in domestic maize production. During the 2023/24 production year, grains and oilseeds experienced a challenging season, with maize production plummeting approximately 22.5% and soybean production decreasing by 33.5% compared to the previous year.
The Crop Estimates Committee’s November 2024 report estimated white maize production at just over six million tonnes, a 29.3% decrease from the prior year, and yellow maize at 6.716 million tonnes, marking a 15.4% decline. These figures indicate a significant shortfall in domestic maize supply.
White maize remains a staple food for many South Africans, while yellow maize and soybeans are essential for the broiler industry. The government must monitor these developments closely and be prepared to implement timely support measures to ensure food security and economic stability.
Compounding the situation, South Africa’s maize exports to neighboring countries reached record highs in 2024.
The country exported approximately 1.5 million tonnes of maize to its Southern African Customs Union (SACU) partners, including Zimbabwe, Botswana, Namibia, Lesotho, and Eswatini. This robust export activity, coupled with diminished domestic production, has intensified the need for maize imports to meet both local consumption and regional export commitments.
The reduced maize supply has led to a significant surge in prices. In December 2024, yellow maize prices reached R5,431 per tonne, a 43% increase from February 2024, while white maize prices soared by 70%, peaking at R6,670 per tonne.
Although prices have slightly decreased since then, agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo cautioned that higher white maize prices may persist into the first quarter of 2025, with potential relief only in the second quarter.
The economic impact of these developments is profound. In the third quarter of 2024, South Africa’s economy contracted by 0.3%, primarily due to a 28.8% decline in agricultural production, which includes maize and soybeans. This downturn underscores the critical role of agriculture in the nation’s economic stability.
Looking ahead, Dr. van der Vyver anticipates that maize imports will continue until the end of April 2025.
Encouragingly, the new production season commenced shortly before Christmas, with most planting completed. Farmers and stakeholders are hopeful for an average crop to stabilize prices and replenish stocks.
However, the availability of sufficient maize until the new harvest remains uncertain, and any shortfall could further pressure prices, adversely affecting consumers.
Sign up to HERE receive our email newsletters with the latest news and insights from Africa and around the world, and follow us on our WhatsApp channel for updates.