Philippines projects lower rice imports in 2025 on improved local production
The DA anticipates improved local production in 2025, supported by favorable climatic conditions and higher stock carryover.
PHILIPPINES – The Philippines Department of Agriculture (DA) forecasts a reduction in rice imports for 2025, estimating imports between 3.8 million metric tons (MMT) and 4 MMT.
This projection is attributed to favorable weather conditions and increased carryover stocks from the previous year.
In 2024, rice imports reached a peak of 4.8 million metric tons (MMT), surpassing the previous record of 3.83 MMT set in 2022, according to the Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI).
However, the DA anticipates improved local production in 2025, supported by favorable climatic conditions and higher stock carryover.
In a briefing on April 2, Agriculture Assistant Secretary Arnel de Mesa said it was “reasonable” to project 3.8 million metric tons (MT) to 4 million MT of stocks coming in this year, stating that if these trends continue, import volumes will decrease.
“Definitely, if this trend will continue, it (rice import volume) will be lower,” he told reporters.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) aligns with this outlook, projecting a 1.9% decline in rice imports for the marketing year 2025/26, estimating imports at 5.2 MMT, down from 5.3 MMT in the current marketing year.
The USDA attributes this expected decrease to a rebound in domestic production, higher stock carryover, and the implementation of a maximum suggested retail price (MSRP) on imported premium rice by the DA.
The USDA also forecasts an increase in milled rice production for the 2025/26 marketing year, estimating production at 12.25 MMT, a 2.1% rise from the previous season. This anticipated growth is credited to favorable weather conditions and increased government funding for the rice industry.
Vietnam and Thailand are expected to remain the Philippines’ primary rice suppliers in the 2025/26 marketing year, owing to established trade relationships, geographical proximity, and competitive pricing.
However, the supply of imported 5% broken rice may decrease due to the DA’s implementation of the MSRP on imported premium rice.
In an effort to stabilize rice prices, the Philippine government declared a food security emergency on February 3, 2025, enabling the National Food Authority (NFA) to release stocks into the market.
This measure aims to address persistently high rice prices despite easing restrictions on Indian rice exports.
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