Nigeria to face historic surge in food prices in 2025, warns AFEX

NIGERIA – Nigeria is bracing for a historic surge in food prices in 2025, driven by reduced domestic production, rising export demands, and increased logistics costs, according to a new report from the African Exchange (AFEX).

The “AFEX 2024 Wet Season Crop Production Report Nigeria” surveyed over 47,000 farmers across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones, assessing key crops such as cashew, cocoa, soybean, sorghum, sesame, paddy rice, ginger, and maize.

AFEX projects that price increases across these staple crops could significantly impact Nigeria’s food security, with inflationary pressures set to rise in the 2024/2025 season.

A critical shortage of farming inputs, limited access to financing, and climate shocks are expected to curtail production volumes, adding strain to a nation already grappling with a record food inflation rate of 37.5%.

“Commodity prices are projected to rise to historical highs in the new season, driven by reduced production levels, growing international demand, and rising logistics costs, pressured by the fuel price hikes,” AFEX stated in the report.

Maize, a key staple, is expected to see its price surge by 48%, with projections placing its value at around N910,000 (US$1,165) per metric ton by the season’s end. This marks a steep increase from the current base price of over N650,000 (US$830) per metric ton, with further escalation anticipated if no price controls are implemented.

“Such a situation could place significant strain on consumers and industries dependent on maize, further amplifying food security concerns and inflationary pressures across the broader economy,” AFEX noted.

Soybean is also expected to witness a nearly 95% price rise, reaching an average of N1,400,000 (US $1,790) per metric ton by the third quarter of 2025.

The anticipated increase is partly due to a projected 2% dip in production, combined with heightened export activities that could limit domestic availability.

Paddy rice prices are forecasted to rise by 55%, with the report projecting a range of N1,100,000 (US$1,405) to N1,300,000 (US$1,660) per metric ton by late 2025.

AFEX underscored the potential for a remarkable 102% increase in sorghum prices, fueled by reduced maize supply and a subsequent shift to sorghum as an alternative.

Sorghum prices, which averaged N640,000 (US$820) per metric ton in the 2023/2024 season, could exceed N1,000,000 (US $1,280) per metric ton in 2025 as demand intensifies.

The report also highlighted the cocoa market, forecasting prices between N15,000,000 and N16,500,000 (US$19,100 to US$21,000) per metric ton.

Similarly, ginger prices are anticipated to remain elevated, with a projected increase of over 90% following a massive 476% surge in the 2023/2024 season due to a fungal attack. Ginger prices are expected to stabilize, but full market recovery may take multiple growing seasons.

This outlook raises red flags for Nigeria’s food security, with AFEX urging immediate government intervention and the implementation of adaptation strategies to mitigate climate change vulnerabilities.

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