Morocco’s phosphate supply draws attention as fertilizer prices shift
Global tension in energy markets pushes nitrogen fertilizer prices higher while Morocco’s phosphate sector shows steadier outlook.
MOROCCO – Rising tension in the Middle East has begun to affect global fertilizer markets, but phosphate supplies linked to Morocco may remain more stable than other inputs, according to new projections from Fitch Ratings.
The agency said pressure in energy markets will likely push nitrogen fertilizer prices higher in the coming year. At the same time, phosphate inputs tied to production in Morocco could hold steadier levels, which may attract buyers searching for reliable supply.
Fitch adjusted its price outlook after supply disruptions linked to the conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks has slowed a key shipping route used for oil exports. Energy intensive industries such as fertilizer production quickly feel the impact when this passage shuts.
Fitch now expects ammonia prices to reach about US$375 per ton in 2026 (US$375 per ton), up from an earlier estimate of about US$300 per ton. Urea prices may also climb to about US$420 per ton in 2026, compared with the earlier projection of US$340 per ton.
Energy costs drive these increases. Nitrogen fertilizer production relies heavily on natural gas, and producers face higher costs when gas markets tighten.
Phosphate sector shows steadier outlook
Phosphate inputs appear less exposed to the current disruption. Fitch expects phosphate rock prices to remain near US$150 per ton in 2026 under FOB Morocco terms.
Morocco plays a central role in the global phosphate market. The country holds about 70% of the world’s known phosphate reserves, and the state owned OCP Group manages most fertilizer production and exports.
Maritime routes used by Morocco and other exporters such as Jordan and Syria connect to the Mediterranean and the Red Sea rather than the Gulf. This reduces direct exposure to shipping disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.
Still, some phosphate based products face higher prices. Fitch expects diammonium phosphate to reach about US$650 per ton in 2026, partly due to a shortage of sulfur and export limits from China.
US looks to Morocco for supply
The United States has also started talks to secure fertilizer supply from Morocco as the conflict continues.
Speaking to CNBC, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said Washington has already taken steps to reduce risk for farmers.
“We’ve established licenses for Venezuela to produce more fertilizer. We’ve had discussions with Morocco,” Hassett said.
He added that the plan aims to soften supply shocks for US farmers. “I’m not saying that we can eliminate what disruption there is so far, but we can minimize it,” he said.
Other countries have also turned to Morocco for supply. India recently confirmed fertilizer purchases from the country, while reports show OCP sold about 90,000 tonnes of phosphate fertilizers to Latin American markets for April shipment.
Fitch expects fertilizer prices to ease between 2027 and 2028 as supply conditions stabilize. Until then, Morocco’s steady phosphate supply could gain stronger interest from buyers across global agriculture markets.
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