Morocco’s 2025 wheat production forecast falls below 10-year average: USDA

MOROCCO – Morocco’s total wheat production for the 2025-26 marketing year is forecast at 2.8 million tonnes, falling below the 10-year average due to early-season drought and reduced planting area, according to a recent report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

This includes 1.7 million tonnes of common wheat and 1.1 million tonnes of durum wheat, alongside 700,000 tonnes of barley.

While this marks a slight recovery from the 2.46 million tonnes harvested in 2024-25, the USDA reports that it remains significantly below the 4.15 million tonnes produced in 2023-24.

The report highlights that despite the heavy rainfall in March, the damage from the hot and dry conditions earlier in the season, particularly between December and February, has already taken its toll.

 “Crops planted early in the season are considerably weaker and expected to yield well below average,” said the FAS, noting that drought delayed planting across southern regions until as late as January 2025.

Barley has faced similar challenges. Although the 2025-26 output is expected to reach 700,000 tonnes, this represents only a modest increase from 660,000 tonnes in the previous year and remains significantly below the 1.35 million tonnes harvested in 2023-24.

With pasture conditions also affected, barley feed consumption is expected to decline significantly due to a drop in livestock numbers. Total barley demand is projected at 1.6 million tonnes, down from 2.2 million the previous season.

To meet a national wheat demand of 10 million tonnes while maintaining strategic reserves, Morocco is forecast to import 7.3 million tonnes of wheat in 2025-26, a 42% increase over the 10-year average.

Barley imports are also expected to rise to 900,000 tonnes. Wheat, flour, and bread prices remain politically sensitive in Morocco, and the government continues to subsidize wheat imports through a fixed flat-rate premium aimed at keeping bread affordable and ensuring stable stock levels.

Russia is rapidly emerging as a key wheat supplier to Morocco, exporting 960,137 tonnes between June and December 2024, a 278% increase over the same period in 2023.

However, France remains the top supplier, accounting for 43% of total wheat imports, followed by Canada and Germany, each with 14%, and Russia with 8%.

Ending stocks for both wheat and barley are expected to remain flat compared to the previous season, with wheat stocks at 1.02 million tonnes and barley at 108,000 tonnes, both down from 2023-24 levels.

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