Mali’s cereal output forecast to rise in 2025/26, supporting regional grain markets
Maize remains the dominant crop, contributing roughly 41 % of cereal supply on average
MALI – Mali’s Ministry of Agriculture has reported that the country’s total grain production for the 2025/26 farming season is expected to increase to 11.4 million metric tons, up from 11 million tons in the previous season, according to data reported by Reuters.
This upward adjustment reflects expectations for more favourable rainfall patterns and agronomic conditions across key producing zones.
Mali ranks as West Africa’s second-largest cereals producer and exporter, behind Nigeria. Maize and rice together account for more than 60 % of total cereal output, with millet and sorghum making up most of the remainder, according to ministry data.
The country’s agricultural year runs from April to April, with planting typically beginning in May or June and harvests concluding between September and October. The sector remains predominantly rain-fed, making output highly sensitive to seasonal rainfall distribution.
Recent forecasts from local authorities suggest that total cereal production in the 2025 campaign reached nearly 11.7 million tonnes, representing a 6 % increase over 2024/25 levels, driven by expanded area and improved weather conditions.
Historical trends show that cereal output in Mali experienced volatility in recent years. Preliminary data for the 2023/24 season pointed to a 3 % decline to about 9.9 million tonnes, attributed to irregular rainfall, late planting, limited access to fertilizers and security challenges that disrupted farming activities.
Maize remains the dominant crop, contributing roughly 41 % of cereal supply on average over the past five years, followed by rice (21 %), millet (20 %) and sorghum (17 %), based on USDA-compiled figures.
Mali’s production trend underlines the broader cereal dynamics in West Africa, where output is influenced not only by agronomic conditions but also by regional trade flows and climate variability.
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) projects global cereal production for the 2025/26 season to reach record levels of nearly 3 billion tonnes, supported by higher wheat, maize and rice harvests worldwide.
Although global conditions differ markedly from the Sahel, improved international supplies can help moderate local price pressures and support cross-border grain trade.
Despite the positive outlook for 2025/26, food security challenges persist.
Previous assessments by FEWS NET and other analysts highlight that structural constraints, such as limited irrigation infrastructure, dependence on rain-fed systems and localized insecurity, continue to affect production stability and household access to grains in parts of Mali, especially in the central and northern regions.
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