Libya’s US$910M wheat import bill raises questions over consumption data, spending gap

LIBYA – Libya’s wheat import bill has raised concerns after new analysis showed a wide gap between the country’s estimated consumption needs and the financial value allocated for imports, reopening debate on subsidies, data accuracy and resource management in the grain sector.

Economic researcher Dr. Awse Rages has revealed that Libya spent US$910.26 million on wheat imports, a figure he says is inconsistent with the country’s population size and internationally recognised consumption benchmarks.

In an analysis published on his official page, Rages highlighted that recorded wheat consumption “on paper” exceeds the global average by more than 470%, a level he described as economically and nutritionally implausible.

Using global reference data, average wheat consumption stands at about 67 kg per person per year. Based on this benchmark, a population of roughly 8 million people would require around 536,000 tonnes of wheat annually.

Even when priced at a relatively high international rate of US$300 per tonne, the total import bill required to meet this demand would be about US$160 million.

“The logical bill to cover the needs of Libyans is $160 million, but the reality says we paid more than US$910 million,” Dr. Awse Rages said, pointing to a discrepancy exceeding US$750 million.

According to the figures reviewed by Rages, official records suggest that the average Libyan consumes 380 kg of wheat per year, more than five times the global norm.

He stressed that such figures indicate a serious imbalance between actual consumption and reported data, calling for clarification from authorities responsible for procurement, subsidies and trade statistics.

Libya is highly dependent on imported wheat due to limited domestic production, which is constrained by arid conditions, water scarcity and underinvestment in agriculture.

Industry data from international bodies such as the FAO indicate that Libya typically imports the vast majority of its wheat requirements, with domestic output covering only a small fraction of demand.

Annual wheat imports are commonly estimated at between 1.3 million and 1.6 million tonnes, primarily to support subsidised bread production.

The country maintains one of the most heavily subsidised bread systems in North Africa, with flour and wheat imports supported through state-backed foreign currency allocations.

While subsidies are designed to protect consumers, economists have long warned that weak oversight increases exposure to inefficiencies, leakage and cross-border smuggling.

Rages’ analysis has revived discussion around these structural issues, particularly at a time when Libya faces persistent fiscal pressure, currency volatility and competing demands on public finances.

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