Kenya’s maize harvest to surge 15% in 2025/2026:  USDA

KENYA – Kenya’s maize production is projected to reach 4.4 million metric tons in the 2025/2026 marketing year, marking a 15.8% increase from the previous season’s 3.8 million metric tons, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) latest Grain and Feed Annual report released on March 19, 2025. ​

This anticipated boost in production is primarily attributed to a 9.5% expansion in the area dedicated to maize cultivation, increasing to 2.3 million hectares, 200,000 hectares more than the prior year. The expansion is linked to the return of favorable weather conditions following an unusually dry year.

Maize, a staple in the Kenyan diet, is predominantly grown in the western and northern Rift Valley regions. In the northern Rift Valley, planting occurs in March with harvesting in October or November. In the western Rift Valley and other southern and eastern areas, maize is cultivated biannually, with harvests in July-August and January-March.

The USDA report also forecasts a 6% rise in maize consumption, reaching 4.4 million metric tons in 2025/2026, aligning with the expected production volume. This equilibrium suggests that Kenya could achieve self-sufficiency in maize for the first time in several years, reducing reliance on imports. ​

Despite the positive outlook for maize, the report indicates a projected 5.6% decline in wheat production, dropping to 280,000 metric tons.

This decrease is attributed to a 9.1% reduction in harvested area, as farmers shift to alternative crops like barley and canola due to challenges in the domestic support program. ​

 Conversely, rice production is anticipated to increase by 11%, reaching 205,000 metric tons. This growth is expected as more land is brought under irrigation and yields are sustained. ​

While these developments are promising, Kenya is projected to remain a net importer of all three commodities, maize, wheat, and rice, due to local supply deficits.

According to USDA, Kenya’s ban on genetically engineered products will continue to constrain import sourcing for maize and maize products, limiting advancements in poultry, dairy, and livestock production. ​

Kenya, however, have been devising measures to boost local production through a raft of measures.

During the current planting season, the Kenyan government has reviewed the prices of maize seeds in a significant move to make them more affordable for farmers ahead of the long rains planting season.

Agriculture Principal Secretary Paul Ronoh, in a letter addressed to the Kenya Seed Company managing director, stated that this decision follows numerous requests from farmers concerned about rising seed prices.

The directive, issued on February 25, ensures that maize seed prices for the 2025 planting season will remain at the same rates as in 2024, a measure intended to ease the financial burden on farmers and boost national food security.

Under the new directive, maize seed prices will be set at KES 210 (US$1.47) for a 1 kg packet, KES 420 (US$2.94) for a 2 kg packet, KES 2,100 (US$14.70) for a 10 kg packet, and KES 5,250 (US$36.75) for a 25 kg packet.

These prices take effect immediately, reversing a previous hike by the Kenya Seed Company in November 2024.

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