Kenya expects higher grain output as rains improve and input support expands
Stronger rainfall and government support are set to lift maize and wheat production while easing import pressure.
KENYA – Kenya is set for a strong grain harvest in the 2026-27 marketing year as better rainfall and increased farm support drive higher output.
A new report by the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service shows that maize production could rise by 32% to reach 4.5 million tonnes. Wheat output is also expected to grow by 27% to about 280,000 tonnes.
“The large increases are driven by an expected return to normal rainfall, which will expand acreage to pre-drought levels and improve yields,” the agency said. “Imports are forecast to decrease as domestic production fills the supply gap.”
The government plans to distribute 12.5 million bags of fertilizer, equal to 625,000 tonnes, under the National Fertilizer Subsidy Program. This marks a rise from 9 million bags, or 450,000 tonnes, issued in the previous year.
Officials expect this increase to support better crop yields across key growing areas. Farmers have faced high input costs in recent seasons, which limited production during the drought period.
The report also notes a sharp shift in maize imports. Kenya increased imports by 220% to 800,000 tonnes in the 2025-26 season to cover a supply gap caused by poor harvests. However, imports could drop to 200,000 tonnes in the coming season as local supply improves.
Seed subsidy targets smallholder farmers
In a related move, the government has introduced lower maize seed prices for the 2025-2026 planting season. The Ministry of Agriculture set prices at KSh 250 (US$1.93) for 1kg, KSh 500 (US$3.87) for 2kg, KSh 2,500 (US$19.34) for 10kg, and KSh 6,000 (US$46.42) for 25kg packs through the Kenya Seed Company.
The State has set aside KSh 2 billion (US$15.45 million) to support this effort, aiming to cut input costs by up to 22% for about 2.5 million smallholder farmers.
Agriculture Principal Secretary Dr Kipronoh Ronoh said the move will help farmers prepare for the long rains season and improve output. “This directive ensures farmers can access quality seed at fair prices and supports stable production,” he said.
Maize remains a key food crop in Kenya and provides over 40% of daily calorie intake. The new measures aim to raise production, steady food prices, and reduce pressure on household budgets, especially in urban areas.
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