Kazakhstan wheat production to reach 18 MT in 2025‑26

KAZAKHSTAN – Kazakhstan’s wheat output in the 2025‑26 marketing year is forecast at 18 million tonnes, maintaining its position as one of the largest producers in Central Asia, according to the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Although slightly below last year’s record, the production level reflects strong industry fundamentals and positive agronomic conditions.

The March 2 FAS report noted that production is roughly 500,000 tonnes lower than in 2024‑25, and about 900,000 tonnes below its own previous forecast.

While Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics projects a record 19.3 million tonnes, FAS analysts consider that figure overstated based on observed yields in key northern grain regions.

The FAS said the main reason it is forecasting a year-on-year decline was Kazakhstani farmers’ decision to reduce wheat plantings and grow more profitable oilseeds, particularly sunflowers and rapeseed.

“The impact on production from this contraction in area was partially offset by improved yields resulting from favorable weather conditions during most of the growing and harvesting seasons,” the FAS said.

Meanwhile, projected wheat exports were raised by 300,000 tonnes from the previous forecast to 10 million tonnes.

If realized, it would be just shy of last year’s record outgo of 10.19 million tonnes. The FAS said Kazakhstani wheat exports are being aided by the government’s transportation subsidy and a continued push among grain traders to diversify their export markets.

Barley production is forecast at 3.6 million tonnes, a minor decline but still among the highest on record, as some barley acreage also reverted to oilseed cultivation.

Exports of feed flour, processed from both wheat and barley, have surged, particularly into China, with first‑quarter shipments (September–December 2025) suggesting total annual volumes could reach up to 3 million tonnes.

However, recent geopolitics have introduced headwinds. Ongoing military conflict in Iran has halted Kazakh grain shipments to that key market, prompting officials to seek alternative destinations, particularly China, for barley and other cereals.

Kazakhstan’s Agriculture Ministry stated exporters will redirect shipments to maintain trade flows if demand from Iran falters. In 2025, Kazakhstan shipped roughly 1.75 million tonnes of barley, with over 60 % destined for Iran before the disruption.

Nearly 1.1 million tonnes were shipped to Iran, accounting for over 60% of total barley exports, up from 547,000 tonnes in 2024.

Kazakhstan also exported 339,000 tonnes of barley to China in 2025 compared with 785,000 tonnes in 2024, 201,000 tonnes to Uzbekistan (160,000 tonnes), 87,000 tonnes to Tajikistan (74,000 tonnes), 22,700 tonnes to Azerbaijan (12,100 tonnes).

It also exported barley to Iraq, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan, Russia, Turkey, the UAE and other countries.

Barley is Kazakhstan’s primary export product to Iran, with small volumes of wheat and vegetable oils also shipped to the country.

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