GLOBAL – The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has projected global wheat carryover stocks to decline to 258.8 million tonnes in 2025, marking the lowest level in nearly a decade.
The USDA attributes this significant drop to tightening global supplies, despite record production of 793.2 million tonnes forecasted for the year.
The sharp reduction in carryover stocks, a crucial indicator of supply availability, reflects challenges in key production regions.
Russia’s wheat output is expected to fall by over 10% to 81.5 million tonnes, with ending stocks plunging by 30% to 8.2 million tonnes. Similarly, European wheat production is anticipated to decline by 9% year-on-year due to adverse weather, further straining global supplies.
In contrast, the United States is projected to see a 17% year-on-year increase in ending stocks, reaching 815 million bushels.
This surplus has contributed to a bearish market sentiment, with CBOT wheat prices revised down to an average of US$5.80 per bushel for 2025.
Analysts cite ample U.S. stocks and a net short position of 95,009 wheat contracts held by managed money participants as factors putting pressure on prices.
While record production is weighing heavily on the market, the reduction in carryover stocks indicates tightening supplies that could support price recovery later in the year.
Risks such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, La Niña-induced weather anomalies, and geopolitical trade tensions remain potential disruptors. Analysts predict that these factors, combined with dwindling stocks in key regions, could drive CBOT prices closer to US$6 per bushel in late 2025.
The wheat projections comes as world rice prices, which soared to their highest level since 2008 in 2023 before retreating in 2024, are projected to drop further in 2025, potentially reaching their lowest level in a decade.
According to the Observatory of International Rice Statistics (OSIRIZ), this decline is driven by an overabundance of supply and sluggish global demand, creating a challenging environment for rice exporters.
The 2024/2025 rice production campaign is poised to break records, with global output forecasted to reach 532.8 million tonnes of milled rice, a 10-million-tonne increase from the previous year.
This surge is largely attributed to India, where favorable monsoon rains have spurred an expansion in rice cultivation, pushing the country’s production to an estimated 145 million tonnes. Other key producers, including Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan, are also expecting moderate production increases, further boosting global supply.
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