GLOBAL – World rice prices, which soared to their highest level since 2008 in 2023 before retreating in 2024, are projected to drop further in 2025, potentially reaching their lowest level in a decade.
According to the Observatory of International Rice Statistics (OSIRIZ), this decline is driven by an overabundance of supply and sluggish global demand, creating a challenging environment for rice exporters.
The 2024/2025 rice production campaign is poised to break records, with global output forecasted to reach 532.8 million tonnes of milled rice, a 10-million-tonne increase from the previous year.
This surge is largely attributed to India, where favorable monsoon rains have spurred an expansion in rice cultivation, pushing the country’s production to an estimated 145 million tonnes. Other key producers, including Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan, are also expecting moderate production increases, further boosting global supply.
Despite the ample supply, global rice demand shows little sign of keeping pace. The Philippines, the world’s largest rice importer, will increase purchases only marginally, from 5.3 million tonnes to 5.4 million tonnes in 2024/2025, a sharp contrast to the previous year’s 1.4-million-tonne jump.
Adding to the demand slowdown, Indonesia, the second-largest rice importer, has significantly curtailed its imports as part of President Prabowo Subianto’s push for self-sufficiency. Indonesia’s imports are expected to plummet from 4.2 million tonnes to just 1 million tonnes this season, further dampening global trade volumes.
Competitive market pressures exporters
India’s decision to relax its trade restrictions and re-enter the market aggressively has intensified competition among the world’s top rice exporters. India is projected to increase exports by 27%, reaching 22 million tonnes by the end of the season, reclaiming its pre-restriction dominance.
Meanwhile, Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan, which benefited from India’s previous absence in the market, face reduced room for maneuver. With key importers like Indonesia scaling back and others waiting for prices to stabilize, exporters are finding it harder to secure contracts.
Rice export prices have been in steady decline since the beginning of the year. Data from S&P Global Platts indicates that Indian 5% broken rice dropped to $434 per tonne as of January 8, marking a 19-month low. Vietnamese white rice, slightly more competitive, was priced at $429 per tonne.
According to OSIRIZ, this downward trend is likely to persist in the coming months, with global rice trade expected to contract further in 2025. Many operators are adopting a cautious approach, delaying purchases in anticipation of further price reductions.
While consumers in importing countries may benefit from falling prices, the oversupply and weakened demand present significant challenges for exporters, particularly in Asia, where rice remains a vital economic staple.
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