Global grain stocks plummet to 10-year low as consumption outpaces production: IGC

GLOBAL – Global grain ending stocks are projected to hit their lowest levels in a decade, driven by a combination of rising consumption and stagnant production, according to the International Grains Council (IGC).

In its latest monthly report released on November 21, the IGC estimated total grain ending stocks for the 2024-25 marketing year at 576 million tonnes, an 8-million-tonne reduction from earlier projections and a 3.5% year-on-year decline.

The decline in stocks comes despite a modest grain output of 2.311 billion tonnes, which the IGC revised downward by 4 million tonnes from its previous estimate.

This adjustment reflects downgraded forecasts for wheat and barley production. Meanwhile, global consumption projections were increased by 4 million tonnes from last month, primarily due to higher demand for feed, food, and industrial applications.

Among individual grains, wheat and corn are poised to see substantial reductions in stocks. Wheat carryover stocks are expected to decline by 9 million tonnes year-on-year, while corn inventories are forecast to drop by 10 million tonnes.

These contractions are reflective of both lower production and strong global demand. Adding to the concern, total grain exports are projected to decrease by 8% from the previous year, reaching just 419 million tonnes—the lowest trade volume in six years.

This decline in exports underscores potential challenges in meeting international demand, particularly in regions that rely heavily on imported grains for food security.

In contrast to the struggles within the grain sector, oilseeds and rice are demonstrating more robust performance. Soybean production for 2024-25 is anticipated to reach a record-breaking 419 million tonnes, despite a slight 2-million-tonne downward revision from the previous month.

This represents a 6% increase compared to the prior year. Consumption of soybeans is also set to achieve an all-time high of 408 million tonnes, driven by strong demand across food and industrial sectors. Consequently, global soybean ending stocks are expected to rise to a record 82 million tonnes, providing a buffer in oilseed markets.

Rice production is similarly projected to reach historic highs, with output revised upward by 4 million tonnes to 535 million tonnes. This growth is largely attributed to improved harvest prospects in India, a major contributor to global rice supply.

Record-breaking production levels for rice and soybeans offer some relief to global agricultural markets, offsetting concerns stemming from declining grain stocks.

Price trends reflect these shifts in market dynamics. The IGC’s Grain & Oilseeds Prices Index held steady at 223, a 13% decrease from the previous marketing year.

This decline was primarily driven by a 20% drop in the soybean sub-index and a 13% reduction in the rice sub-index. Despite the relative price stability in recent months, the broader year-on-year decrease indicates a softening of market pressures for these commodities.

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