China moves to reduce soybean and grain imports, raising trade concerns
New outlook points to lower grain and soybean imports as China leans more on local supply.
CHINA – China has released a new agricultural outlook for 2026 to 2035, setting out plans to cut imports of key farm goods such as cereals and soybeans as it seeks to rely more on domestic production.
The move has drawn attention across global markets. China feeds more than 1.4 billion people and plays a central role in farm trade.
Data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development shows the country imported food worth about US$208 billion between 2021 and 2023, more than double the total for Africa over the same period.
China leads the world in wheat production. Output reached about 140 million tons in the 2024 to 2025 season, according to the United States Department of Agriculture. That accounts for more than 17 percent of global supply and exceeds the combined harvest of the European Union.
In corn, China ranks second after the United States. Production could pass 300 million tons in the 2025 to 2026 season, which would equal about 23 percent of global output.
Rice remains central to food use in China. The country no longer ranks first in production after India took that spot, but it remains the largest consumer. China also holds more than 100 million tons in rice stocks, the largest in the world.
Its role in trade can shift prices. When China buys more rice, buyers in Africa and the Middle East face tighter supply. When it buys less, prices can ease.
Soybeans show China’s strong link to global markets. The country buys about 60 percent of all soybeans traded worldwide. Imports reached a record 111.8 million tons in 2025, up 6.5 percent from the year before.
China uses most of these imports to support its large livestock sector and oil processing industry. Changes in buying patterns can shift trade flows, especially between major suppliers such as Brazil, Argentina, and the United States.
The new outlook signals that China plans to reduce this reliance over time. Analysts say this shift could affect exporters who depend on Chinese demand. It could also shape prices across grains and oilseeds, with ripple effects for import-dependent regions.
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