Canola production in South Africa may reach record levels in 2026

SOUTH AFRICA – South Africa’s canola production could reach a new record in the 2026 to 2027 season as farmers expand plantings and respond to strong demand for vegetable oils and oilcake, according to analysis by Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz).

Data shows that farmers plan to plant 189,175 hectares, up 8% from the previous season. If yields hold at the five year average of 1.89 tonnes per hectare, the harvest could reach about 357,541 tonnes. This would mark a 16% increase from the prior season and set a fresh high.

The steady rise in canola mirrors the strong growth seen in the soybean sector. Over the past decades, farmers have increased canola plantings from 17,000 hectares in the 1998 to 1999 season to over 174,000 hectares in 2025 to 2026.

Demand for oils and oilcake continues to support this growth, while some farmers have shifted from wheat to canola due to better returns.

South Africa has also moved into a net exporter position for canola, with shipments reaching markets such as Germany and Belgium. Production remains concentrated in the Western Cape, where winter rainfall supports the crop.

Even so, the outlook depends on weather conditions and whether farmers plant the full intended area. Early projections remain subject to change as the season progresses.

Beyond canola, the broader message points to the need for wider agricultural growth across South Africa. While sectors such as oilseeds and fruit have performed well, other regions, especially former homelands, still lag behind.

Progress in these areas will depend on stronger coordination between government and the private sector, including better land access and support for farmers.

The Agriculture and Agro-processing Master Plan already outlines steps to improve key value chains. The focus now shifts to full implementation to support growth across crops, livestock and poultry.

In a related development, South Africa’s maize exports continue to face weaker global demand. Exports for the 2025 to 2026 marketing year have reached 1.95 million tonnes as of mid April, below the seasonal forecast of 2.40 million tonnes.

Zimbabwe remains the top buyer, accounting for 38% of shipments, while demand from Asian markets such as Vietnam, Taiwan and South Korea has slowed due to ample global supplies.

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