Canadian wheat production forecast to decline 10% in 2026/27
The decline is expected to tighten domestic supplies and could weigh on Canada‘s wheat exports in the coming marketing year.
CANADA – Wheat production is expected to decline by approximately 10% to 36.1 million tonnes in the 2026-27 marketing year, compared with the record harvest of more than 40 million tonnes in the previous season, according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).
Despite the anticipated reduction, Canada’s 2026 wheat harvest is projected to be the second-largest on record, supported by relatively favourable growing conditions in major producing regions.
The USDA’s November 4 Grain and Feed Update attributed the decline to reduced harvested acreage and lower yields after wet, cool conditions delayed spring planting, along with intense heat across Western Canada in July.
Statistics Canada’s August model-based estimates put total wheat production at 36.1 million tonnes, comprising 26.5 million tonnes of spring wheat, 6.4 million tonnes of durum and approximately 3.3 million tonnes of winter wheat.
The production cut is expected to reduce export availability. The USDA forecasts Canadian wheat and wheat product exports to decline by 2.8% in 2026/27, as supplies available for international markets tighten.
Nevertheless, exports started the marketing year strongly, following record shipments of approximately 23.9 million tonnes in 2025/26.
Grain quality has emerged as another concern for the Canadian wheat industry.
Preliminary results from the Canadian Grain Commission’s Harvest Sample Program showed that only 79% of Canada Western Red Spring (CWRS) wheat samples achieved No. 2 grade or better as of October 26, compared with 91% during the corresponding period last year.
Harvest rainfall contributed to the deterioration in quality, with approximately 20% of CWRS samples classified as No. 3 or feed grade, compared with the five-year average of 7%.
The higher proportion of lower-grade wheat could influence export competitiveness and domestic grain utilization.
Consequently, the USDA expects feed wheat consumption to increase during the 2026/27 marketing year as more lower-quality grain is channelled into livestock feed production.
Food consumption is forecast to decline slightly because milling-grade wheat is less available.
Canadian wheat stocks are also expected to tighten, with the stocks-to-use ratio projected at 14.7%, below the five-year average of 15.5%.
Meanwhile, competition in international markets could intensify as exporters adjust to changing quality specifications and available supplies.
Statistics Canada is expected to publish its final 2026 crop production estimates in December, following its autumn producer survey.
In 2025/26, Canada ranked third in wheat production and was the world’s sixth-largest wheat exporter.
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