Canada’s wheat production set to surge by 10% amid improved crop conditions

CANADA— The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts total wheat production in Canada to increase 10% over the previous marketing year to 35.5 million metric tons (MMT) on improved yields.

This projection, including spring wheat, winter wheat, and durum wheat, reflects a notable recovery from last year’s figures, thanks to improved crop yields and favorable growing conditions.

The forecast aligns with Statistics Canada’s seedings intention data and historical averages for the past five years.

A key factor contributing to this optimistic outlook is the significant improvement in crop conditions across Canada’s major wheat-growing regions: Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba.

As of early July, moisture levels in these Prairie Provinces have markedly improved since the start of the growing season, which began in April.

By the end of June, only 32 percent of the Prairie Region was classified as abnormally dry or experiencing moderate to exceptional drought, a dramatic improvement from 90 percent at the same time last year.

In Saskatchewan and Alberta, the percentage of spring wheat in good to excellent condition has surged by 39 and 32 percentage points, respectively, compared to the previous marketing year. However, in Manitoba, excessive moisture has led to a 12-percentage point decrease in the share of wheat area rated in good to excellent condition.

While specific data on spring wheat development are not reported in Alberta, the provincial government indicates that the stage of development for spring cereals is near the ten-year averages.

As of late May, spring wheat planting progress was reported at 88.7 percent, trailing last year’s 99.4 percent and the five-year average of 94.4 percent. Conversely, Saskatchewan reports that 62 percent of spring cereals are at normal development stages, with 34 percent behind schedule.

Ontario’s winter wheat, the primary type grown in the province, is advancing faster than normal. Harvest is expected to commence within the next ten days in the southwest region, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (OMAFRA).

Meanwhile, Manitoba’s average spring wheat crop is at the flag-to-heading stage, with quality rated as mostly fair to good.

Due to steady demand and an adequate supply, feed wheat usage is projected to see only a marginal increase over the 2023/24 marketing year. Despite this, the proportion of feed wheat within the total feed grain use in Canada is shrinking, as indicated by data from the Canadian Grain Commission.

Canadian wheat exports are anticipated to rise by 7%, driven by a similar increase in domestic supplies.

This growth is expected despite potential risks, such as a possible decline in demand from China due to competitive pricing from other suppliers.

The forecast for total wheat exports, including durum, is set to decrease by 1.6 MMT to 24 MMT, representing a 6% percent reduction from the previous year due to a projected decrease in domestic supply of more than 2.5 MMT.

Year-to-date exports for the 2023/24 marketing year have already fallen by five percent compared to the same period in the previous year.

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