Brazil eyes record 325M tonnes grain harvest for 2024-25 season

BRAZIL – Brazil is set to achieve a record-breaking grain harvest of 325.7 million tonnes for the 2024-25 season, driven by a greater planted area and a recovery in productivity, according to the latest forecast from the National Supply Company (Conab).

This represents a 9.4% increase over the previous season, fueled by a combination of greater planted area and a recovery in crop productivity.

In its fifth harvest report, published on February 13, Conab highlighted a 2.1% expansion in the cultivated area, now estimated at 81.6 million hectares, alongside a 7.1% improvement in average productivity, projected at 3,990 kilograms per hectare.

The updated forecast is 3.4 million tonnes higher than January’s estimate and, if realized, will mark the largest grain harvest in the history of Conab’s survey series.

Corn production is a key driver of the optimistic outlook, with total output expected to reach 122 million tonnes, a 5.5% increase over the 2023-24 season.

The first corn crop has already seen 13.3% of its planted area harvested. Despite a 6.6% reduction in the area dedicated to the first corn crop, a 9.9% gain in average productivity has offset the decline, resulting in an estimated harvest of 23.6 million tonnes for the first cycle.

The second corn crop, which is 18.8% sown, is also showing promise. Favorable weather conditions and a 2.4% increase in planted area are expected to boost production to 96 million tonnes, up 6.4% from the previous season.

This positive outlook has led Conab to revise its domestic demand forecast for corn to 86.9 million tonnes. However, exports are projected to dip slightly to 34 million tonnes due to growing domestic consumption and a smaller surplus for international markets.

Moreover, soybean harvest accelerates, setting new records. The rapid progress of the soybean harvest has paved the way for the planting of the second corn crop. With 14.8% of the soybean area already harvested, production is expected to reach 166 million tonnes, an impressive 18.3 million tonnes above the previous season.

Conab attributed this growth to both an expansion in planted area and a recovery in average productivity, supported by favorable weather conditions in key producing states such as Paraná, Santa Catarina, and much of the central-west region.

However, water restrictions in Mato Grosso do Sul and Rio Grande do Sul have posed challenges in those areas.

Rice production rebounds, boosting domestic supply and exports

Rice production is also set to rebound, with Conab forecasting an 11.4% increase to 11.8 million tonnes. This recovery ensures sufficient domestic supply and is expected to raise Brazilian rice exports to 2 million tonnes.

Sowing for rice is nearly complete, with the planted area reaching 1.7 million hectares, a 6.4% increase over the previous season.

While high temperatures and reduced water levels in reservoirs in Rio Grande do Sul—Brazil’s largest rice-producing state have raised concerns, Conab does not anticipate a decline in average productivity.

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