Argentina soybean exports are set to rise
The country has benefited from the trade war between China and the United States, in which China has shifted most of its purchases to Brazil and Argentina.
ARGENTINA – Argentina’s soybean exports for the 2025/26 marketing year (MY2025/26) are projected to reach 8.2-8.3 million metric tons (MMT), a 5% increase from the previous year and the highest volume in six years, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
This bullish outlook stems from anticipated soybean production of 47.5 MMT, supported by favourable early-season conditions despite planting delays due to excessive rainfall in key Pampas regions.
While soybean crush is raised to a record 43.0 MMT, driven by robust soymeal demand and strong processor margins, exports are poised to benefit from tighter domestic balances and competitive global pricing amid elevated soybean futures hovering near US$1,040 per bushel.
Argentina, the world’s third-largest soybean exporter behind Brazil and the US, maintains its leadership in soymeal shipments at 29 MMT for MY2025/26, underscoring the dual focus on raw beans and value-added products.
The country has benefited from the trade war between China and the United States, in which China has shifted most of its purchases to Brazil and Argentina.
Recently, China agreed to re-establish agricultural trade with the United States, pledging to import 12 million tonnes of US soybeans this year and 25 million tonnes annually over the following three years.
According to FAS, Argentine farmers harvested an estimated 50.5 million tonnes of soybeans in 2024/25.
Planting delays due to excessive rainfall were part of the reason for the projected year-on-year decline, but the larger issue involved planting decisions.
This outlook reflects producers’ intentions to return to more corn relative to soybeans compared to the previous season.
According to the FAS, the government’s recent reduction in export taxes on soybeans, which were lowered by 2 percentage points to 24%, was not expected to have a significant impact on soybean planting decisions in the current season.
Additionally, Industry contacts indicate that further expansion of the soybean area would require additional significant reductions in export taxes.
At present levels, export taxes continue to weigh heavily on producer returns and, in many cases, represent the margin between profitability and loss.
Argentina ranked first in soybean meal exports and is projected to maintain that position in 2025/26 with shipments of 29 million tonnes.
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