Africa’s green maize market to hit US$3.9B by 2035: IndexBox Market Intelligence

AFRICA – The African maize (green) market is poised for steady expansion, reaching a volume of 2 million tons and a value of US$3.9 billion by 2035, according to a recent analysis by IndexBox Market Intelligence. 

This growth reflects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +0.6% in volume and +0.9% in value from 2024 to 2035, maintaining the current trend of moderate upward momentum. 

Nigeria, South Africa, and Guinea dominate as primary consumers and producers, collectively representing over three-quarters of the market share. While production remains stable, international trade reveals notable disparities, with Ethiopia leading in high-value exports and Somalia as the principal importer by value.

Market Forecast and Drivers

The projected growth in the maize (green) market is underpinned by increasing consumption needs in Africa. 

From 2024 to 2035, market volume is anticipated to rise from 1.9 million tons to 2 million tons, while value, measured in nominal wholesale prices, will expand from US$3.6 billion to US$3.9 billion. This trajectory aligns with historical patterns, where consumption has shown a relatively flat trend but with incremental gains. 

Key drivers include population growth, dietary shifts toward fresh produce, and agricultural advancements in major producing nations. However, challenges such as climate variability and supply chain inefficiencies may influence the pace of expansion.

Consumption Patterns

In 2024, Africa’s total consumption of maize (green) stood at 1.9 million tons, remaining stable compared to the previous year. 

This level represents a continuation of a flat trend observed since 2013, with a peak of 1.9 million tons in 2019. In value terms, the market reached US$3.6 billion, marking a 2.1% increase from 2023 and an average annual growth rate of +3.4% over the past decade.

By country, Nigeria led with 791 thousand tons (42% of total volume), followed by South Africa (415 thousand tons, 22%) and Guinea (301 thousand tons, 16%). 

These three nations accounted for 80% of consumption. South Africa exhibited the strongest growth in consumption volume, with a CAGR of +1.5% from 2013 to 2024. Per capita consumption varied significantly: Guinea recorded the highest at 21 kg per person, compared to South Africa’s 6.7 kg and Nigeria’s 3.5 kg. Globally, Africa’s average per capita consumption was 1.3 kg per person in 2024.

Production Overview

Production of maize (green) in Africa totaled 2 million tons in 2024, reflecting a minor decline of 0.2% from 2023 after nine years of growth. 

Over the 2013–2024 period, output increased at an average annual rate of +0.9%, peaking at 2 million tons in 2023. In value terms, production rose to US$3.7 billion, up 4.3% annually on average, with notable fluctuations including a 16% surge in 2015.

Leading producers included Nigeria (791 thousand tons), South Africa (426 thousand tons), and Guinea (301 thousand tons), comprising 77% of total output. Other significant contributors were Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Morocco, and Senegal, accounting for an additional 18%. Morocco demonstrated the most rapid growth, with a CAGR of +32.8% in production volume.

The average yield in 2024 was 4.1 tons per hectare, stable from the prior year but showing a flat long-term trend. Harvested area contracted slightly to 480 thousand hectares, consistent with a modest expansion pattern since 2013.

Import Dynamics

Imports of maize (green) rebounded in 2024, increasing by 17% to 45 thousand tons after four years of decline. Despite this uptick, imports have decreased at an average annual rate of -1.2% since 2013, with a peak of 175 thousand tons in 2019. In value terms, imports reached $225 million, up from previous levels but below the 2021 high of US$290 million.

Somalia was the largest importer by volume (18 thousand tons, 40%) and value (US$145 million, 64%). Djibouti followed with 9.1 thousand tons (US$63 million), Algeria with 7.9 thousand tons, and Côte d’Ivoire with 2.4 thousand tons. 

Côte d’Ivoire recorded the highest growth rate in import volume at +36.4% CAGR. Import prices averaged US$5,040 per ton, down 3.7% from 2023, with significant variations: Somalia paid the highest at US$8,061 per ton, while Côte d’Ivoire’s price was US$288 per ton.

Export Trends

Exports declined marginally by 0.1% to 115 thousand tons in 2024, continuing a three-year downward trend. However, exports have grown at a +5.9% CAGR since 2013, peaking at 154 thousand tons in 2021. In value terms, exports increased to US$361 million, reflecting a +7.2% annual growth rate over the decade.

Senegal, Morocco, and Ethiopia each exported around 26–28 thousand tons, totaling 72% of exports. Kenya (16 thousand tons) and South Africa (11 thousand tons) followed. 

Ethiopia led in value (US$208 million, 58%), benefiting from the highest unit price of US$7,930 per ton, a +11.2% CAGR in prices. Overall export prices rose to US$3,145 per ton, up 12% from 2023, highlighting a premium on high-value shipments.

Despite the growth, the African maize (green) market exhibits stability in production and consumption but dynamism in trade. 

A notable price disparity persists between exports (often high-value) and imports (lower-cost), underscoring opportunities for value addition and export diversification.

Dominant players like Nigeria and South Africa influence regional trends, while emerging exporters such as Ethiopia demonstrate potential for premium markets.

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