AfDB warns El Niño could cut growth as Africa faces up to US$20B in losses
The bank says stronger climate planning and more funding will help countries reduce the economic impact of the expected weather event.
AFRICA – Africa could lose between US$10 billion and US$20 billion as a new El Niño weather event threatens economic growth across the continent, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB).
The bank said the expected climate event could reduce gross domestic product by 1 to 2 percent in the hardest hit countries. The warning comes after the AfDB projected Africa’s economy to grow by 4.2 percent in 2026 and 4.4 percent in 2027 under better global conditions.
Anthony Nyong, Director of the AfDB’s Climate Change and Green Growth Department, said the economic effects could go beyond the damage caused by extreme weather. “Climate finance trap,” he said, describing a situation where governments shift money away from health, education and infrastructure to respond to climate emergencies.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) estimates there is an 80 percent chance of El Niño developing between June and August 2026. The agency also expects the event to continue until November with a probability of about 90 percent or more. The WMO expects a moderate to strong event and says the term “super El Niño” is not an official scientific classification.
Africa felt the effects of the previous El Niño during 2023 and 2024. Southern Africa faced severe drought while East Africa experienced major floods. Those events reduced farm output, pushed food prices higher and lowered rural incomes.
The AfDB estimates African farmers could lose about US$327 million in income this year because of weather related disruptions. Fishing could also suffer as warmer sea temperatures and extreme weather reduce productivity by between 1 and 4 percent.
The bank also warned that governments may face higher spending as they repair damaged infrastructure and respond to emergencies. Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, Burundi and Nigeria are among the countries expected to face the greatest impact.
The AfDB plans to review the possible effects of El Niño on its investments in September and identify changes where needed. It also wants to help countries secure more funding from the Green Climate Fund, the Adaptation Fund, the Climate Investment Funds and financing set aside for loss and damage.
Funding needs, however, remain much higher than available support. The United Nations estimates developing countries will need about US$365 billion each year by 2035 to address climate risks, while international public finance for adaptation reached only US$26 billion in 2023.
Anthony Nyong said Africa alone could require about US$100 billion this year, compared with earlier estimates of about US$50 billion. The UN also plans to make up to US$100 million available through the Central Emergency Response Fund to support preventive action in the countries most at risk.
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