Turkey’s wheat imports forecast to drop 56% in 2026/27 on record harvest

TURKEY – Wheat imports are forecast to fall sharply in the 2026/27 marketing year as a record domestic harvest and large government-held stocks reduce the country’s need for foreign grain.

According to the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS), imports are projected at 2.8 million tonnes, down 56% from 6.32 million tonnes in 2025/26.

The latest estimate also represents a significant reduction from the 4.5 million tonnes forecast in June 2026.

The improved supply outlook follows favourable weather conditions across much of Türkiye’s wheat-growing regions during the 2026 growing season.

USDA estimates wheat production at approximately 23 million tonnes, a record recovery from the drought-affected crop of 2025.

Increased domestic availability is expected to reduce the country’s reliance on imported wheat for food processing and other uses. However, consumption is projected to rise by 4% year-on-year, partly because of increased demand for feed wheat.

Government stocks are also playing a significant role in reshaping import demand.

The Turkish Grain Board (TMO) accumulated more than 10 million tonnes of wheat following the strong harvest and has begun releasing supplies to domestic processors.

Since September 2026, the agency has offered wheat from its reserves to flour and pasta exporters operating under the Inward Processing Regime, which allows imported or domestically sourced inputs to be used in products intended for export.

In October, TMO also made 5.5 million tonnes of grain products available to buyers through the Turkish Mercantile Exchange.

The shift in supply conditions comes as Türkiye’s grain trade faces uncertainty in the Black Sea region.

Russia and Ukraine, two of its largest wheat suppliers, have experienced escalating conflict that has disrupted grain shipping activity.

Reduced import requirements, combined with domestic stock releases and shipping uncertainty, are contributing to the lower forecast.

However, the stronger harvest has not yet translated into improved performance across Türkiye’s wheat-processing export sector.

USDA reported that flour exports declined 20% year-on-year to 617,000 tonnes during June-August 2026.

In contrast, pasta exports increased 22% to 560,000 tonnes. Overall exports of wheat and wheat products fell 14% during the period.

For grain traders, millers and processors, the outlook signals a major adjustment in Türkiye’s procurement requirements.

Lower wheat imports could reduce demand for overseas supplies while increasing competition for domestically held grain.

Nevertheless, the country’s substantial milling and pasta industries will continue to influence domestic wheat consumption and regional grain trade as the 2026/27 season progresses.

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