North Africa wheat harvest rises as Egypt records highest output on record
Better harvests across the region could reduce import demand, although North Africa will still rely on overseas supplies to meet consumption.
KENYA – North Africa is set to produce 20 million tonnes of wheat in the 2025 to 2026 season, marking a strong recovery after drought reduced harvests a year earlier, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
The July forecast shows regional wheat production will increase by 15% from 17.4 million tonnes in the previous season and stand 14.2% above the five year average of 17.5 million tonnes. Better rainfall supported the recovery across much of the region, although results differ from country to country.
Morocco is expected to record the biggest increase, with wheat production reaching 5 million tonnes, up nearly 43% from the previous season. Algeria is forecast to produce 3.5 million tonnes, a 16% increase, while Egypt is expected to harvest 10.2 million tonnes, up 7%. Tunisia and Libya are expected to report lower production.
Egypt reached a new milestone by producing more than 10 million tonnes of wheat for the first time. The Egyptian Ministry of Agriculture said farmers planted about 1.58 million hectares of wheat during the 2025 to 2026 season, an increase of almost 252,000 hectares from the previous year.
The ministry said wider use of subsidized seed, improved wheat varieties and better farming methods helped lift production. Authorities reported that practices such as laser land levelling, terraced farming and subsoil work now cover about 75% of wheat fields and have increased productivity by around 20%.
The government also increased its guaranteed purchase price for local wheat to 2,500 Egyptian pounds per ardeb of 150 kilograms, about US$51 (EGP2,500), compared with 2,100 to 2,200 Egyptian pounds, or about US$43 to US$45 (EGP2,100 to EGP2,200) in the previous season.
Despite the stronger harvest, North Africa still depends heavily on imported wheat. Between 2020 and 2025, the region imported almost 25 million tonnes each year to meet demand.
Market conditions may also reduce Egypt’s import needs in the coming marketing year. According to S&P Global, wheat prices fell to a five month low at the end of June as fresh Black Sea supplies entered the market and buying slowed. Platts assessed its Milling Wheat Marker at US$229 per metric tonne on June 30, while the CIF East Mediterranean basis Egypt 12.5% assessment fell to US$249 per metric tonne.
S&P Global also reported that Egypt imported more than 14 million metric tonnes of wheat during the June to July marketing year, the highest annual volume on record. However, buyers said demand has eased as importers use existing stocks. “Storing wheat will be hard,” one buyer said, adding that some holders may reduce prices to clear inventories.
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