Kazakhstan bans most wheat imports as supply debate continues
The move comes despite expectations of strong wheat production and export volumes in the 2025-26 marketing year.
KAZAKHSTAN – Kazakhstan has decided to ban wheat imports by both rail and road, a move that has sparked debate among grain industry groups over supply levels and future market needs.
The country’s Interdepartmental Commission approved the measure, according to Yevgeny Gan, Chairman of the Founders’ Council of the Union of Grain Processors of Kazakhstan. The Grain Union of Kazakhstan also confirmed the decision.
Authorities had initially considered a full ban on wheat imports without exceptions. However, grain processors secured limited access for some users. Under the new rules, flour mills, grain elevators, and poultry enterprises will still be allowed to import wheat by rail through approved lists.
Gan said grain industry estimates released in early May pointed to carryover stocks of about 2 million tonnes at the start of the new marketing season, even after accounting for ongoing imports. Industry representatives argued that such volumes would not place significant pressure on domestic prices or supplies. Despite those concerns, the government moved ahead with the restrictions.
Processors also warned that lower demand for Russian wheat could reduce grain prices in border regions and make Russian flour more competitive. As a result, some industry players believe authorities should also examine restrictions on flour imports.
The Union of Grain Processors raised concerns about longer-term grain availability across Central Asia and Afghanistan. The group noted that the region recorded two strong harvests in 2024 and 2025, but future crops may not reach similar levels. At the same time, population growth continues to increase demand for wheat-based foods.
According to the union, annual bread consumption across the region rises by roughly 400,000 tonnes each year, while planned deep grain-processing plants will require at least 2 million additional tonnes of wheat annually.
The import restrictions come as Kazakhstan expects another strong wheat season. According to the Foreign Agricultural Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the country will produce about 18 million tonnes of wheat in the 2025-26 marketing year.
While that figure sits below the previous season’s record harvest, it keeps Kazakhstan among Central Asia’s leading wheat producers.
The agency also forecasts wheat exports at 10 million tonnes, up 300,000 tonnes from its earlier outlook. Government transport subsidies and efforts to expand export destinations continue to support shipments.
Meanwhile, exports of feed flour made from wheat and barley have grown strongly, particularly to China, with annual volumes expected to reach as much as 3 million tonnes.
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