USDA’s 2024 US wheat production estimated at highest level since 2016

USA – The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released its Small Grains 2024 Summary, estimating U.S. wheat production for 2024 at 1.971 billion bushels, down 0.5% from the August forecast but up 9% compared to 2023.   

This marks the highest production level since 2016 when 2.309 billion bushels were harvested. The current five-year average for U.S. wheat production is 1.770 billion bushels, positioning this year’s crop above market expectations of 1.966 billion bushels.

The report indicates that the increase in production comes despite a decrease in planted area, reflecting improved yields across the country.

Total wheat acreage is estimated at 46.1 million acres, down 7% from last year, though harvested area has increased by 3.8% to 38.5 million acres. The average yield per acre is forecast at 51.2 bushels, a 2.5 bushel improvement over 2023.

Bill Lapp, founder and chief economist at Advanced Economic Solutions, noted that favorable weather conditions across key growing regions contributed to the strong yields.

“Spring wheat achieved record yields, and hard wheat made a significant recovery. While soft red winter wheat saw reduced acreage and a return to more normal yields, overall, it’s been a productive year for U.S. wheat,” Lapp said.

Winter wheat production is projected at 1.349 billion bushels, a 9% rise from last year, with yield increasing to 51.7 bushels per acre. T

he hard red winter wheat crop, which makes up the largest share, is estimated at 770.4 million bushels, up 29% from 2023, while soft white and hard white winter wheat production also increased significantly, up 18% and 40%, respectively.

On the other hand, soft red winter wheat saw a sharp drop, with production estimated at 342.4 million bushels, down 24% from last year’s 449 million bushels. Lapp indicated that this decline was expected following a record yield in 2023.

Spring wheat production, excluding durum, is estimated at 542 million bushels, up 8% from 2023. The average yield of 52.5 bushels per acre sets a record for spring wheat, with hard red spring production alone reaching 503 million bushels.

Durum wheat production also rose sharply, with 80.1 million bushels produced, an increase of 35% from last year.

Wheat Stocks Outlook

The USDA’s Grain Stocks report shows that wheat stocks as of September 1 were at 1.986 billion bushels, up 12% year-over-year.

On-farm stocks totaled 664 million bushels, with the remaining 1.322 billion bushels stored at mills, processors, and other facilities.

Despite the higher production figures, Lapp warned that there may still be some uncertainty regarding feed and residual usage, estimated at 110 million bushels for the year.

Looking ahead, ample wheat supplies, particularly in durum, and strong yields in most wheat classes position the U.S. for robust exports and milling operations heading into 2025.

However, market dynamics such as global demand and potential supply chain disruptions will play a critical role in determining final stocks and pricing.

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