USA to register its smallest wheat harvest since 1957 in year 2023/24: USDA

Published May 16, 2023

USA- For the year 2023/24, wheat harvests in the USA plains will likely be the lowest in almost seven decades thanks to drought, according to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Additionally, the WASDE report provides that these low harvests will likely bring U.S. wheat supplies to their lowest in 16 years.

All wheat production is projected at 1,659 million bushels, up modestly from last year on the increased harvested area.

However, the harvest-to-plant ratio is down from last year, with above-average abandonment in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas.

The all-wheat yield, projected at 44.7 bushels per acre, is 1.8 bushels lower than last year.

The report also provides that there will likely be a reduction in wheat exports due to the low net production as domestic use increases significantly.

According to the report, exports are projected at 725 million bushels, 50 million lower than last year.

Moreover, the total 2023/24 domestic use is projected at 1,112 million bushels, up 1 percent from last year, primarily on increased feed and residual use, thus affecting the projected exports from the US.

Corn and soybean supplies to rise

Conversely, U.S. corn and soybean supplies were expected to rise sharply in the coming year due to forecasts for a record harvest for both crops, the USDA said in the report.

The corn crop is projected at a record 15.3 billion bushels, up more than 10 percent from last year on increases to both area and yield.

The yield projection of 181.5 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather, estimated using the 1988-2022 time period.

Similarly, total U.S. corn use for 2023/24 is forecast to rise about 5 percent relative to a year ago on higher domestic use and exports.

Food, seed, and industrial use are likely to rise by 55 million bushels to 6.7 billion while feed and residual use is projected higher on a larger crop and lower expected prices.

U.S. corn exports for 2023/24 are forecast to rise 325 million bushels to 2.1 billion, as lower prices support a sharp increase in global trade following the decline seen during 2022/23.

Additionally, the U.S. market share is expected to increase slightly albeit remain below the average of the past 5 years.

However, despite a rebound in U.S. exports, Brazil is forecast to be the world’s largest exporter of corn for the second consecutive year.

Meanwhile, the US soybean crop is projected at 4.51 billion bushels, up 5 percent from last year’s crop mainly on higher yields.

In addition, the U.S. soybean crush for 2023/24 is projected at 2.31 billion bushels, up 90 million from the 2022/23 forecast on favorable crush margins and strong demand for soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock, which is projected to increase 900 million pounds to 12.5 billion.

Domestic soybean meal disappearance is forecast to increase by 2 percent from 2022/23 on lower soybean meal prices and modest growth primarily in poultry production.

U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.98 billion bushels, down 40 million from 2022/23 with strong competition from increasing South American production and limited gains in global import demand.

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