US corn exports surge as market strengthens amid global uncertainty
USA – The United States experienced a significant increase in corn exports at the start of 2025, although analysts caution that the bullish trend may not last indefinitely as market conditions evolve.
According to the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) latest grain export inspections report, released on February 18, weekly corn shipments totalled 1.61 million tonnes.
Since the start of the market year on September 1, total exports have reached 24.73 million tonnes—a 35% surge compared to the 18.26 million tonnes exported during the same period last year.
Analysts attribute the strength of US corn exports to several interwoven factors. Tight global stocks and a competitive pricing advantage for US corn have driven demand, particularly from Mexico.
“Corn remains king as prices and price competitiveness have increased over the last several months amid tight global stocks and an impressive export pace led particularly by Mexico,” said Tanner Ehmke, lead economist at CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange division.
Adding to market volatility, South America’s 2024-25 corn crop outlook has worsened, providing further upward pressure on US corn values.
The International Grains Council (IGC) revised its global corn production forecast for 2024-25 downward by 3 million tonnes to 1.216 billion tonnes, citing unfavourable conditions in Argentina and Brazil. The USDA’s latest estimate stands slightly lower at 1.212 billion tonnes.
In Argentina, dry conditions have impeded corn development, while in Brazil, delays in the soybean harvest due to excessive rainfall have postponed the planting of the country’s critical second “safrinha” corn crop.
These setbacks could reduce South America’s ability to supply the global market in the short term, keeping demand for US corn elevated.
Trade policy uncertainty and market implications
Evolving trade policies have also impacted the US corn market. With concerns over potential tariffs and retaliatory measures from major trading partners—including Mexico, Canada, and China—buyers have been frontloading their US corn purchases to hedge against possible trade disruptions.
“The strength in corn sales and export inspections this year has certainly been influenced by the election and potential tariffs and retaliatory tariffs, but the main driver has been the limited global availability and the United States being priced competitively since July of last year,” noted Max Olson, director of financial risk strategy at Global Risk Management.
Mexico, which overtook China as the largest importer of US corn in 2023, now accounts for more than 40% of total US corn exports by value. In 2024 alone, Mexico imported US corn worth US$5.6 billion, followed by Japan at US$2.8 billion and Colombia at US$1.6 billion.
While the current pace of US corn exports is robust, analysts expect a potential slowdown in the second half of 2025. As South America’s harvest progresses, global buyers may shift their attention to alternative sources of corn.
“Going forward, I expect a sizeable slowdown in export sales as South America takes over the leadership role for corn exports, assuming no further delays in Brazil’s safrinha crop planting and a decent Argentine harvest,” Olson explained.
Further influencing the long-term market outlook is the potential expansion of US corn acreage. Many analysts predict that the upcoming USDA Prospective Plantings report will show an increase in corn acreage for 2025, potentially pressuring prices later in the year.
CoBank estimates 2025 US corn plantings at 94.55 million acres, a 4.4% increase from 2024, as corn gains acreage at the expense of soybeans, wheat, and cotton.
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