Ukraine grain stocks set to fall to 11.3M tons by season end
Higher export targets and early season limits shape current supply levels.
UKRAINE – Ukraine’s grain stocks are expected to drop to about 11.3 million tons by the end of the 2025 to 2026 marketing year, even as exports gain pace in recent months.
The Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture reports that current grain stocks stand at 15.7 million tons. If export rates seen in April 2026 continue, stocks will decline to 11.3 million tons by season close. This total will include 4.9 million tons of wheat, 1.5 million tons of barley, and 4.5 million tons of corn.
“Even if the current export rates are maintained at the level of April 2026, by the end of the season, the balances may amount to about 11.3 million tons of grain in total,” the ministry said.
The projected closing stock is higher than last season. At the end of the 2024 to 2025 marketing year, total grain stocks stood at 4.9 million tons, including 1.7 million tons of wheat, 0.7 million tons of barley, and 2.3 million tons of corn.
Officials link the slower export pace in the first half of the season to several factors. These include delays in the 2025 harvest, changes in wheat trade flows due to higher output in the European Union, and ongoing attacks that damaged ports, rail lines, and storage sites.
Ukraine had set a higher export target for the current season. The country planned to export 46.4 million tons of grain, up from 40.7 million tons in the previous season. By the end of April 2026, exporters had shipped 30.3 million tons, which is 65.2 percent of the target.
The ministry says the higher stock levels do not point to weak trade. Instead, they reflect the larger export base and earlier limits. Recent months show faster shipments, which help close the gap.
At the same time, farmers continue planting the next crop. As of May 5, they had sown 2.6 million hectares of grains and pulses, which is 43 percent of the planned area. Corn leads with 1.35 million hectares, followed by barley at 687,300 hectares and wheat at 177,900 hectares.
Planting of industrial crops also continues. Farmers have covered 2.07 million hectares so far, including 182,900 hectares of sugar beet, 1.51 million hectares of sunflower, and 377,100 hectares of soybeans.
Central and southern regions report the fastest progress, with Poltava, Odesa, and Kyiv regions leading in planted area.
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