Russia’s wheat production to decline for third consecutive year amid unfavorable weather

RUSSIA – Russia’s wheat production is forecasted to shrink for a third consecutive year, with experts attributing the decline to prolonged dry weather conditions that have delayed plantings in the world’s largest wheat exporter.

According to agricultural consultancy SovEcon, wheat production in 2025 is expected to total 80.1 million tons, the lowest yield since the 2021-22 season.

This contraction is likely to place additional pressure on global stockpiles that are already facing strain.

The potential decrease in Russia’s wheat output comes as global markets are still recovering from supply chain disruptions caused by extreme weather events in other key wheat-growing regions, including the United States and Europe.

In recent years, Russia’s bumper wheat harvests helped mitigate global supply concerns, bringing down prices from their 2022 peak. However, the dominance of cheaper Russian crops is now giving way to a tighter supply outlook, which has begun to influence futures markets once again.

The primary factor behind the expected decline is dry weather, which has delayed Russia’s wheat planting efforts.

This delay, coupled with adverse conditions, is expected to reduce both the cultivated area and crop yields for the 2025 season.

While the forecast remains speculative, nine months before the actual harvest, continued dry spells could further impact crop development.

According to Andrey Sizov, managing director of SovEcon, the poor condition of winter wheat crops has raised concerns about an increased risk of winter kill, which could worsen the production outlook.

Nevertheless, consultancy firm IKAR remains cautiously optimistic, forecasting that Russia’s wheat production could range between 81 million and 85 million tons after recent rains, according to a report by Interfax.

In 2024, droughts across parts of the US Midwest and the Canadian Prairies significantly hampered wheat output, further straining supplies. This has left markets increasingly dependent on Russia’s harvest to meet demand.

Even though wheat prices dropped from their record highs in 2022, they may rebound as tight supplies once again raise concerns over food security.

Global grain futures have risen in response to forecasts of diminished Russian output. Additionally, geopolitical factors such as the ongoing Black Sea grain deal between Russia and Ukraine could further complicate wheat exports from the region, contributing to uncertainty in the global wheat market.

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