Record global grains output lifts stocks to nine-year high, IGC says
Total grains output is forecast to increase 6% year on year.
GLOBAL – Global grains markets are heading into the 2025-26 marketing year with ample supplies, as total production is forecast to reach a record 2.461 billion tonnes and carryover stocks are set to climb to their highest level in nine years, according to the latest Grain Market Report from the International Grains Council (IGC).
In its January 15 update, the IGC revised total grains production, covering wheat and coarse grains, up by 31 million tonnes from its November projection.
At the same time, it lifted its estimate for carryover stocks by 15 million tonnes to 634 million tonnes.
Total output is now expected to rise 6% year on year, reflecting stronger-than-anticipated harvest prospects in several key producing regions.
The upward revisions are largely driven by improved maize outlooks in the United States and China, higher wheat production forecasts led by Canada and Argentina, and larger barley crops expected in Canada and Australia.
These gains more than offset localized weather-related concerns in other origins, reinforcing the overall picture of comfortable global supply.
Global wheat production in 2025-26 is pegged at a record 842 million tonnes, up 5% from the previous season.
Corn output is forecast at an all-time high of 1.313 billion tonnes, representing a 6% year-on-year increase. Together, these two crops account for the bulk of the expansion in total grains availability and are central to the projected rise in stocks.
While global consumption of wheat and coarse grains is also expected to increase, it is not forecast to keep pace with production growth.
The IGC sees total use reaching a record 2.416 billion tonnes, but the slower rate of demand expansion means inventories are likely to build further.
If the projected 8% increase in carryover stocks is realised, it would mark the fastest rate of stock accumulation since the 2017-18 season, a development with clear implications for prices and trade flows.
In contrast to grains, global soybean production in 2025-26 is forecast to edge slightly lower from last year’s peak, at 427 million tonnes.
Despite the marginal decline in output, consumption is expected to rise 3% year on year to a record 432 million tonnes, driven by expanded use across feed, food and industrial segments. This tighter balance suggests a more supportive backdrop for soybeans compared with grains.
Rice fundamentals appear steadier. Production is projected to remain broadly unchanged from the previous year, but total use is expected to reach a new peak of 538 million tonnes, reflecting food demand shaped by ongoing population growth, particularly in Asia and Africa.
On the trade side, the IGC expects global trade volumes for wheat and coarse grains, soybeans and rice to edge slightly higher in 2025-26, supported by competitive export supplies and steady import demand from key consuming regions.
Price indicators continue to reflect the weight of abundant supplies. The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index fell 4% from the November estimate to 213.
On a year-on-year basis, the index is also down 4%, led by a sharp 21% decline in rice prices and declines of 3.5% each in wheat and corn prices.
The wheat sub-index alone fell 1.8% from November, underscoring the pressure facing grain markets as the new season approaches.
Sign up to HERE receive our email newsletters with the latest news and insights from Africa and around the world, and follow us on our WhatsApp channel for updates.
