Projected decline in 2025 global rice prices may offer relief for Nigerians

NIGERIA – Nigerian households struggling with skyrocketing food costs may soon find relief as global rice prices are projected to decline by 11% in 2025/2026, according to the latest annual commodities review and outlook report by AFEX, a leading commodity exchange platform.

“The global rice market is poised for potential price relief in 2025, driven by expectations of strong production and key policy shifts in India. Global rice production is expected to rise by 8% in 2024, which is anticipated to lead to an 11% drop in rice prices in 2025,” AFEX stated in its report.

The expected drop could alleviate financial pressure on millions of Nigerians for whom rice is a staple food.

Despite being one of Africa’s top rice producers, Nigeria has faced persistent supply challenges. The country produced 5.23 million metric tons of rice in the 2024/2025 season, reflecting a 7% decline from the previous year’s 5.61 million metric tons, according to data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 

Yet, despite domestic production efforts, rice prices have continued to soar, making it increasingly difficult for Nigerians to afford the grain essential for meals like jollof rice.

A market survey conducted last year by consultancy SBM Intelligence, which publishes the Jollof Index, found that in Lagos, the price of a 50-kilogram (110.2-pound) bag of rice surged by 8% in December, reaching 75,000 naira (US$48.5). 

This increase placed a heavier financial strain on consumers, particularly in a country where the minimum monthly wage stands at just 70,000 naira (US$46). 

Moreover, Nigeria’s statistics agency reports that rising food costs have left two out of three households food insecure, increasing vulnerability to hunger. Therefore, a decline in rice prices could be a game-changer for these households. 

According to the AFEX report, the anticipated decline in global rice prices stems from favourable weather conditions—extreme rainfall and the expected onset of La Niña—likely to boost yields in India and across Asia. 

Additionally, India’s return to the export market and higher harvest volumes are expected to push prices down in early 2025.

Exporters in Asia and the United States are also expected to contribute to a well-supplied global market, further stabilising prices. 

However, despite these optimistic projections, Nigerians continue to grapple with record-high rice costs, with a 50kg bag currently selling for approximately N110,000 (US$73) as of February 2025. 

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