Japan aims to boost rice exports eightfold by 2030 amid domestic shortage
The government’s export target of 350,000 tons by 2030 represents about half a month’s domestic consumption, which stands at approximately 6.6 million tons annually.
JAPAN – Japan has set an ambitious goal to increase its rice exports nearly eightfold to 350,000 tons by 2030, up from approximately 45,000 tons in 2024.
The government’s export target of 350,000 tons by 2030 represents about half a month’s domestic consumption, which stands at approximately 6.6 million tons annually.
This initiative, expected to be approved by the cabinet this month, aims to enhance agricultural efficiency despite Japan currently grappling with its most severe rice shortage in decades.
According to the country, the ongoing crisis is attributed to record-high summer temperatures that damaged crops, leading to a 25-year low in inventories. Additionally, a surge in tourism has increased domestic consumption, exacerbating the shortage.
The domestic rice shortage has led to significant price hikes, with average prices reaching ¥23,715 (US$159) per 60-kilogram bag in 2024, a 55% increase from the previous year.
This surge has contributed to broader inflationary pressures, affecting household budgets and prompting concerns about food security.
In response, the government has taken unprecedented measures by releasing 210,000 tons from its emergency rice stockpile to stabilize soaring prices.
The country has also developed strategies to cushion itself from future shortages and meet the ambitious target. In line with that, Japan is investing in the development of heat-resistant rice varieties.
Farmers in regions like Saitama Prefecture are testing strains such as “emihokoro,” designed to withstand high temperatures that have previously compromised crop yields. The agriculture ministry projects that, without adaptation, rice yields could decline by 20% by 2100 due to climate change, making these innovations crucial for sustaining production.
Surge in private rice imports amid domestic shortages
With domestic rice shortages persisting, private imports of overseas rice have surged. As of the end of January, fiscal 2024 rice import applications submitted to the government covered a record high of 991 tons.
Currently, companies can profit from imported rice despite high tariffs. Kanematsu Corp., a major Tokyo-based trading company, has announced plans to import 10,000 tons of rice in 2025 to meet growing demand, particularly from the restaurant industry, including gyudon beef rice bowl chains.
There are two types of rice importation in Japan: government-imported rice, which is mandated under World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, and privately imported rice, for which trading companies pay tariffs.
Under the minimum access system, the government is required to import 770,000 tons of rice annually, with 100,000 tons allocated for staple food use. Due to a poor harvest, the government-imported rice sold out in fiscal 2024 for the first time in seven years.
Private rice imports have been rising steadily. While only 426 tons were imported in the fiscal year 2020, the amount remained between 200 and 400 tons in subsequent years. However, by the end of December 2024, imports had reached 468 tons; by the end of January 2025, the figure had more than doubled to 991 tons.
According to sources close to the distribution industry, the purchase price for Calrose medium-grain rice from the United States is about 150 yen (US$1.01) per kilogram, including transportation costs. After tariffs, the total price reaches approximately 500 yen (US$3.4) per kilogram.
Given that domestic rice is currently sold at around 900 yen (US$6) per kilogram, businesses can profit from imports.
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