Global wheat flour trade forecast to decline by 6% in 2024-25

GLOBAL – The global wheat flour trade is set to decline by 6% in the 2024-25 trading season, reaching 15.9 million tonnes, according to the latest report from the International Grains Council (IGC).

This drop follows a high of 17 million tonnes in 2023-24, a peak not seen in six years. The IGC revised its projections down by 200,000 tonnes (wheat equivalent) from its earlier July estimate, citing lower demand from key markets.

According to the forecast, Iraq, the world’s second-largest importer of wheat flour, is expected to reduce its purchases by 600,000 tonnes year-on-year, bringing its total intake down to 1.3 million tonnes.

The reduction is attributed to Iraq’s ample domestic supplies and potentially less competitive offers from Turkey, the world’s largest flour exporter.

Turkey’s exports are also expected to decline significantly due to a temporary wheat import ban that was only partially lifted this month. Turkish flour shipments during the first two months of the current trading season were recorded at 700,000 tonnes, representing a more than one-third drop from 2023-24 levels.

For the full trading season, Turkey’s exports are forecast to reach 4.4 million tonnes, a decrease from last year’s record 5.7 million tonnes and slightly below the five-year average.

Flour exports rise in Kazakhstan, Russia, and Egypt

In contrast, flour exports from Kazakhstan, Russia, and Egypt are expected to increase. Kazakhstan, in particular, is forecast to see a 300,000-tonne rise in exports, reaching a seven-year high of 3.2 million tonnes.

Most of this increase is destined for Afghanistan, where wheat flour imports are projected to expand to 3.3 million tonnes. However, there are concerns about Kazakhstan’s export potential due to widespread crop quality issues reported this season.

Russia and Egypt have also seen upward revisions in their wheat flour export projections, supported by higher production estimates. Both countries are likely to benefit from the demand shift as Turkey’s exports falter.

A significant drop in wheat flour imports is also anticipated in sub-Saharan Africa, where the projected intake has been lowered by 400,000 tonnes from the previous forecast to 2.6 million tonnes.

This is a sharp decline from last year’s seven-year high of 3.1 million tonnes, driven by reduced shipments from Turkey.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s flour imports surged last year due to a temporary increase in deliveries from Turkey, but these are expected to retreat this season as regional supply and demand dynamics stabilize.

Sign up to receive our email newsletters with the latest news updates and insights from Africa and the WorldHERE.