Global wheat flour trade contracts 9% on Iraq slowdown, IGC says
The decline in imports to Iraq is linked to the country’s record wheat crop, with the government authorizing up to 2 million tonnes of grain exports this year.
IRAQ – Global wheat flour trade is set to contract sharply in the 2024-25 marketing year, weighed down by a steep decline in imports from Iraq, the world’s second-largest buyer, according to the International Grains Council (IGC).
In its latest monthly Grain Market Report, the IGC projects total trade at 15.5 million tonnes (wheat equivalent), down 9% from last season’s six-year high of 16.9 million tonnes. If realized, it would mark the lowest volume in three years.
The Council noted that while the forecast is marginally higher than its March estimate, thanks to upward revisions for sub-Saharan Africa and North and Central America, it remains constrained by weaker demand in Far East Asia. Deliveries to Sri Lanka, in particular, fell short of earlier expectations.
Iraq’s downturn is central to the global decline. Following a record domestic wheat harvest, the government in Baghdad has authorized up to 2 million tonnes of grain exports this year.
The IGC said policy measures, including phased increases in tariffs on imported flour and efforts to bolster local milling output, further reduced demand. As a result, imports are pegged at 1.2 million tonnes, the lowest in 14 years, compared with 2.1 million tonnes the year before.
“Reduced supplies from Turkey, Iraq’s typical top supplier, added to the slowdown,” the IGC said.
By contrast, Afghanistan, the world’s largest wheat flour importer, is estimated to have purchased 3.1 million tonnes, only slightly below last year but comfortably above the five-year average. The country adjusted its sourcing by replacing part of its flour purchases from Kazakhstan with grain shipments from the same origin.
In sub-Saharan Africa, imports held firm at 3.2 million tonnes, broadly in line with last season’s multi-year high. While countries such as Ethiopia and Somalia shifted from flour to grain, Sudan expanded purchases, mainly supplied by Egypt.
On the export side, Turkey, traditionally the dominant global supplier, recorded a significant setback. Shipments plunged nearly 40% from last year’s peak to a decade-low of 3.6 million tonnes, reflecting restrictions on wheat imports that curtailed access to competitively priced Black Sea grain.
Egypt, meanwhile, emerged as a major player, lifting its exports to a record 2 million tonnes, primarily destined for Sudan and other sub-Saharan African markets. This surge positioned Egypt as the world’s third-largest flour exporter, after Kazakhstan (2.6 million tonnes).
Looking ahead, the IGC forecasts a strong rebound in the 2025-26 season, with global wheat flour trade expected to climb to 17.3 million tonnes, a nine-year high if achieved.
The outlook factors in higher demand projections for Near East Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Iraq’s imports are anticipated to recover by 500,000 tonnes on the back of a smaller domestic wheat crop, while Turkey’s exports are projected to jump to 5.3 million tonnes following the easing of import restrictions.
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