Fertilizer prices set to rise over 30% in 2026, World Bank warns
Rising costs and supply strain could affect farmers and food supply worldwide.
GLOBAL – Global fertilizer prices could rise by more than 30% in 2026 as supply chains face pressure from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, according to the World Bank.
The warning appears in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook report released on April 28.
The fertilizer market has come under strain due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route that carries nearly one third of global maritime fertilizer trade. About 16 million tons pass through this route each year. The current situation has raised concerns about food supply, as higher input costs could reduce farm output.
Prices have already started to climb. In March, urea reached US$725.6 per ton, marking a 53.7% jump from February and the highest level in four years. Diammonium phosphate traded at US$658.3 per ton after a 5% increase, while potassium chloride rose from US$372.5 to US$380.6 per ton over the same period.
The overall fertilizer price index increased by more than 12% between the last quarter of 2025 and the first half of 2026.
“Fertilizers have never been so unaffordable since 2022, eroding farmers’ incomes and threatening future crop yields,” the World Bank said.
The report shows that urea will likely drive further price increases in the coming months. It expects urea prices to average around US$675 per ton this year, which is close to 60% higher than in 2025. Prices may drop by 25% in 2027 if natural gas costs ease.
“Among the main upside risks are the continuation of severe constraints on maritime transport in the Middle East or a resumption of hostilities, which could exacerbate shortages,” the World Bank stated. “If these risks materialize, the average price of urea in 2026 could exceed the 2022 average of US$700 per ton.”
Other fertilizers may see smaller increases. The report projects that diammonium phosphate prices will rise by about 6% in 2026 compared to 2024, then fall by 10% in 2027 as new supply enters the market. Potassium chloride prices may increase by about 12% in 2026 before easing by 6% in 2027.
“In the longer term, the commissioning of significant new production capacity, particularly in Canada, could exert further downward pressure on prices,” the World Bank noted, adding that potash supply depends less on the Middle East than other fertilizers.
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