El Niño raises pressure on India’s edible oil supply as oilseed output drops
Lower oilseed production and rising import reliance are raising fresh concerns about India‘s food supply and prices.
INDIA – India’s edible oil sector is facing fresh pressure after the El Niño weather pattern disrupted the southwest monsoon, reducing rainfall and exposing key oilseed crops to dry conditions that threaten domestic production.
Agricultural experts say soybean, groundnut and sunflower, which depend on timely monsoon rains, have suffered the most. Delayed rainfall has slowed planting across many rainfed areas, while early estimates show that cultivated land in some regions has dropped by nearly 40% compared with normal levels.
The long dry spell has also reduced soil moisture, leading to weak crop growth and lower yields. High temperatures during flowering and pod development are expected to cut seed production even further. Experts have also warned that hot, dry weather encourages pests such as aphids and whiteflies, forcing farmers to spend more on pesticides and reducing farm income.
Lower domestic production could increase India’s reliance on imported edible oils. The country already imports a large share of its edible oil needs, and weaker harvests could push imports even higher while exposing consumers to swings in global prices.
The latest concerns come as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising global commodity and energy prices continue to add pressure to India’s edible oil market. Analysts expect this year’s monsoon to record the weakest rainfall in eight years, increasing the risk to oilseed production. Economists have also reduced India’s gross domestic product growth forecast from 7.7% to 6.6%.
According to the Observer Research Foundation, India’s dependence on imported edible oils has increased from 15% in 1995 to 56% today. The country also faces a widening gap between supply and demand, with edible oil demand growing by an average of 4.3% each year while domestic oilseed production has increased by only 2.2%.
Government agencies have identified several rainfed districts in central and western India as areas facing high climate risk. Experts recommend expanding irrigation, promoting drought resistant crop varieties, improving soil moisture management, strengthening weather advisory services and encouraging crop diversification to reduce future risks.
Health experts also continue to advise consumers to use cooking oils in moderation. Palm oil and palmolein remain India’s main imported edible oils because of their lower cost and wide availability. While palmolein contains Vitamin E and natural antioxidants and performs well during frying, nutrition experts say its high saturated fat content may raise LDL, or bad cholesterol, when consumed in large amounts. They also recommend rotating cooking oils such as mustard, groundnut, sesame, sunflower, rice bran and olive oil, while avoiding repeated heating of cooking oil.
The Observer Research Foundation has also urged the government to make edible oil import duties more flexible. The group says higher duties during periods of low global prices could support local farmers, while lower duties during periods of high prices could help protect consumers. It also recommends developing edible oil trading hubs and investing in oilseed production outside India as the country works toward increasing domestic edible oil production to about 25.5 million tonnes by 2031.
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