Africa to account for 41% of global rice imports by 2033: Report

AFRICA – According to the 2024 OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook report, Africa is anticipated to account for 41% of global rice imports by 2033, representing more than 26 million tonnes annually.

Rice is the second most cultivated cereal and the third most consumed after maize and wheat in the continent. Despite ongoing efforts at both national and regional levels to boost production, local output remains far from sufficient.

Currently, the continent imports around 17 million tonnes annually, making up 32% of global imports, primarily to meet a rising demand driven by population growth and changing dietary patterns.

The report projects that per capita rice consumption will increase from 25.1 kg in 2023 to 28.5 kg by 2033, second only to Oceania in growth rate.

On the other hand, the region’s population is expected to continue growing and reach 1.69 billion people by 2030, according to UN data. These two factors should contribute to putting pressure on local sectors that are still unable to keep up with demand, which will ultimately revive the use of the international market to meet needs.  

In the West African region, the main production and consumption basin of the cereal, Nigeria will continue to dominate international purchases. The country is expected to almost double its rice imports by 2033 to 4 million tonnes, a volume almost equivalent to that projected for China.

While the OECD-FAO forecasts predict the importance that imported rice will take on in the plates of African consumers, several analysts believe that Africa is capable of feeding itself.

In the West African region, which accounts for 60% of the continent’s rice-planted areas, there are indeed opportunities to significantly increase production, such as developing irrigation.

While nearly 80% of the rice-growing system depends on rainfall, providing water through development can be a way to boost yields and develop rice-growing potential in many countries.

In Nigeria, data from the Ministry of Agriculture indicates that there is a potential of about 4.2 million hectares of cultivable rice land. However, only 17% of this area, or 720,000 hectares, was equipped with an irrigation facility in 2020 with limited control over water use.

In Senegal, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates the hydro-agricultural potential at nearly 240,000 hectares in the Senegal River Valley (SVR) with yields varying between 5 and 7 tonnes per hectare compared to 2 tonnes in rainfed areas.

Similarly, in Mali, the areas suitable for irrigation are estimated at nearly 2.2 million hectares with only 36% of this potential being exploited.

More recently, on October 19, ECOWAS announced a ten-year, US$19 billion strategy to support rice production in the region for the period 2025-2035.

The program includes interventions at different levels of the agricultural value chain. Storage, processing, fertilizers, seeds. The race against time has begun.

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