Sweden’s grain harvest set to fall 20% after winter damage, Lantmännen warns
Winter weather has cut Sweden‘s grain harvest forecast to 5 million tons, raising concerns over farm incomes and wheat supplies ahead of the 2026 harvest.
SWEDEN – Sweden’s grain harvest is expected to fall by 20% this year after severe winter damage affected major growing areas, according to agricultural cooperative Lantmännen.
The company now expects the 2026 grain harvest to reach about 5 million tons. That is well below the 6.4 million tons recorded in 2025 by the Swedish Board of Agriculture and also below the country’s ten year average of around 5.5 million tons.
Lantmännen said it based the forecast on several data sources and noted large differences between regions and crop types.
“This year’s forecast shows a clearly weaker harvest situation. The winter has had a severe impact, particularly on winter wheat, while farmers also face high costs and low grain prices. For many farmers, this amounts to a triple challenge: lower volumes, pressured grain prices and high production costs,” said Per Germundsson, Director of Grain Business at Lantmännen.
Winter crops entered the season in good condition, but heavy rainfall and poor weather later damaged large production areas. Western Sweden and the Mälardalen region suffered from excess moisture, while Skåne and Gotland experienced dry conditions early in the summer.
Winter wheat has taken the biggest hit, raising concerns about both harvest volumes and grain quality ahead of the milling season.
Spring crops have performed better under more favorable weather, and they could deliver stronger yields if conditions remain stable through harvest.
However, Lantmännen said those gains will not fully replace losses from winter crops, which usually produce higher yields than spring planted crops. As a result, total wheat production is still expected to remain below normal.
The difficult season comes as farmers continue to face rising production costs. Higher energy prices have pushed up fertilizer and fuel costs, while grain prices have not increased enough to cover those expenses. The weaker financial outlook could also affect planting decisions for the 2027 harvest if growers reduce autumn sowing.
Lantmännen stressed that the current figures remain a forecast. Harvest volumes may become clearer once combines enter the fields, while grain quality can only be assessed after harvesting begins.
The lower harvest outlook comes as grain markets continue to watch weather conditions across key producing regions. Industry observers will also monitor autumn planting later this year, as those decisions could shape Sweden’s grain supply and milling sector in 2027.
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