Türkiye’s wheat production set to drop to 19M tonnes in 2024/25 amid drought challenges

TURKIYE – Türkiye’s wheat production for the 2024–25 marketing year is projected to decline to 19 million tonnes (Mt), down from 21Mt in the previous year.

The drop in production comes amid worsening dry conditions that have impacted key growing regions, raising concerns about food security and economic stability.

The Turkish State Meteorological Service reported that rainfall from October 2024 to January 2025 was 28.4% below the 1991–2020 average and 39.6% lower than the same period in the previous year.

This sharp decline in precipitation has severely affected winter crops, particularly wheat, which is a staple of Türkiye’s agricultural sector.

Central Anatolia, the country’s primary wheat-producing region, accounting for around 31% of annual production, has been hit hard by the drought. Rainfall from October to January averaged just 82mm, 53% of the long-term average and 49% lower than the same period in 2023–24.

January rainfall was particularly dire, with only 12.7mm recorded—69.7% below the long-term average. The region has been under severe drought conditions since late January, further jeopardizing wheat yields.

Southeastern Anatolia, another major winter-cropping area, has also faced extreme water shortages. Rainfall in the region averaged 96mm over the past four months, just 36.8% of the long-term average and 29.4% of the previous year’s levels.

The region has been under a severe drought declaration since May 2024, with January rainfall plummeting to a mere 4.8mm, only 5.7% of the long-term average.

The average yield is expected to drop to 2.62 tonnes per hectare (t/ha), down 11.5% from the 2.92t/ha achieved in 2023–24.

While the harvested area has expanded slightly to 7.25 million hectares, up from 7.2 million hectares the previous year, this has not been enough to offset the impact of lower yields caused by poor growing conditions.

In response to the challenging conditions, the Turkish government has adjusted its wheat policies. After initially announcing in early 2023 that it would no longer sell wheat at a discount to domestic consumers, the government has since relaxed this stance.

It is now selling reserve stocks at discounted rates to reduce inventories, with prices varying based on quality and end-use.

Wheat imports from June to November 2024, the first half of the marketing year, were 40% lower year-on-year, totaling just 1.9Mt.

This decline was largely due to the suspension of wheat imports under the Inward Processing Regime (IPR) from late June to mid-October.

Flour exports, a key component of Türkiye’s agricultural trade, are forecast to decline from 10Mt in 2023–24 to 7Mt in 2024–25.

The temporary suspension of the IPR disrupted traditional trade flows, causing Türkiye to lose critical market share in Africa and the Middle East. While flour exports are expected to recover in the second half of the year, the damage to key markets like Iraq may have long-term repercussions.

However, imports are expected to rebound in the second half of the year, reaching 5Mt by May 2025. Russia is anticipated to remain the primary supplier of Türkiye’s wheat imports.

Domestic wheat consumption is expected to rise slightly, from 19.7Mt in 2023–24 to 20Mt in the current season.

Barley stocks to rise

Despite the production decline, wheat stocks remain higher than normal, with carryover inventories from the 2023–24 marketing year contributing significantly to supply. Wheat stocks entering the 2024–25 season stood at 5.3Mt, up from 4.6Mt the previous year.

On the other hand, barley carry-in stocks have increased significantly, reaching 1.7Mt for the 2024–25 season, up 83% from the previous year.

Barley consumption is expected to remain steady at 8Mt, with 7.1Mt going to the stockfeed sector. Exports are forecast to jump by more than 200% to 500,000t, driven by the government’s efforts to liquidate excess inventories.

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