Turkey’s cereal output set to drop 4.1% to 37.4 million tonnes in 2025
Wheat production, the country’s staple grain, is projected to fall 5.8% year-on-year to 19.6 million tonnes.
TURKEY – Turkey’s cereal production in 2025 is forecasted to decline by 4.1% to 37.4 million tonnes compared to 2024, according to data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry.
This marks a continuation of a downward trend influenced by adverse weather conditions and shifting agricultural dynamics.
Wheat production, the country’s staple grain, is projected to fall 5.8% year-on-year to 19.6 million tonnes.
Despite a slight increase in harvested area to 7.35 million hectares, yields are expected to drop due to the driest fall-to-winter period in 65 years, particularly affecting key wheat-producing regions in Central and Southeastern Anatolia.
About 80% of Turkey’s wheat and barley are rainfed, making them vulnerable to rainfall deficits. Barley production is also forecast to decline by 8% to 7.5 million tonnes, while rye and oats are expected to decrease by 5.5% and 23.1%, respectively.
In contrast to the general downturn, corn production is anticipated to rise by 4.9% to 8.5 million tonnes, driven by strong domestic prices and better access to irrigation water in corn-growing areas. Corn area is expected to expand as farmers shift from cotton and vegetables to corn cultivation.
Similarly, sunflower production is projected to increase by 4.8% to 2.3 million tonnes, reflecting a strategic pivot toward oilseeds amid changing market conditions. However, soybean production is forecast to decline by 11% to 160,000 tonnes, with Turkey continuing to depend heavily on imports to meet domestic demand for oilseeds and related products.
Among dry pulses, chickpea production is estimated at 605,000 tonnes, with dry beans and red lentils projected at 283,000 and 340,000 tonnes respectively. These figures indicate relative stability in chickpea output despite the overall challenging agricultural environment.
According to the data, the overall agricultural sector is facing a contraction in 2025, with total cereal and field crop production expected to fall by 5.3%, and vegetable output declining by 1.7% to 33 million tonnes.
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