S&P Global: Black Sea wheat prices stay firm as exporters watch new crop demand

RUSSIA/UKRAINE – Black Sea wheat prices remained largely stable through early May as exporters faced tight margins and buyers closely watched the arrival of the new crop in July.

According to a recent report from S&P Global Energy, the Platts Milling Wheat Marker stayed within the high US$230s to low US$240s per metric ton range since early March. On May 14, Russian 12.5% protein wheat traded at US$241/mt. April’s average price stood at US$238.61/mt, almost unchanged from March’s US$238.77/mt.

Market players said attention has now shifted toward the Black Sea’s upcoming harvest season. Unlike last year, when old crop wheat traded at a US$10 to US$15/mt premium over new crop supplies, prices between the two are now nearly equal due to the large 2025 harvest.

“I see several buyers at US$240/mt,” a Russian wheat seller said, noting that both June cargoes and July new crop shipments attracted bids near the same level.

Exporters also continued to face pressure from the weaker Russian ruble, which recently dropped to Rb73 against the US dollar, its lowest point since 2023. Despite this, traders expect only limited price declines in the near term.

“I expect the price to reach no lower than US$235/mt,” a buyer of Russian wheat said.

S&P Global Energy CERA forecast Russian wheat production at 87.2 million metric tons in 2026, down three million metric tons from the previous year due to slower spring planting. However, improved winter wheat yields helped support production prospects.

Demand patterns also shifted across the Middle East and North Africa region as local harvests gained pace. Egypt, which started harvesting wheat in mid April, kept purchases limited because local wheat remained cheaper than imported cargoes. Buyers there also pointed to high energy costs and comfortable stock levels.

Meanwhile, Turkey and Morocco are expected to record major production gains, with each country likely to add about four million metric tons to wheat output. Traders also expect Turkey to consider fresh import limits, similar to measures introduced in 2024.

Black Sea wheat also remained more competitive than Australian supplies into Asian markets. Australian Standard White wheat traded at least US$20/mt above 11.5% Black Sea wheat, while buyers showed willingness to pay premiums of only up to US$10/mt.

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