South Africa wheat plantings fall to 11-year low as costs rise
Farmers cut wheat acreage as fuel and fertilizer prices climb, raising fresh concerns over supply and imports.
SOUTH AFRICA – South Africa is set to record its lowest wheat planting area in more than a decade in 2026, as rising input costs push farmers to scale back production.
Data from the Crop Estimates Committee shows that farmers plan to plant about 486,400 hectares of wheat this season, a 6% drop from last year. This marks the smallest area since 2015 and reflects a steady shift toward crops with better returns.
Higher fuel and fertilizer prices have driven this change. These inputs make up a large share of production costs, and most of them come from outside the country. Recent tensions in the Middle East have added pressure. Wholesale diesel prices rose by more than 40% in early April and could increase further in the coming weeks.
John Steenhuisen, South Africa’s Minister of Agriculture, said farmers no longer see wheat as a viable option under current conditions. “Wheat producers in the Swartland, Overberg and Southern Cape regions, for example, are clear: under current market and policy conditions, wheat farming is no longer economically viable, and intervention across the entire value chain is crucial,” he said.
The drop in planted area points to another year of lower output. Wheat production has declined each year since it peaked at 2.28 million tonnes in 2021. The country produced about 1.89 million tonnes in 2025, a 17% drop over four years.
As local supply falls, South Africa will rely more on imports to meet demand. The country consumes about 3.6 million tonnes of wheat each year, based on recent estimates. This gap between supply and demand is likely to widen in the 2026 to 2027 marketing season.
At the same time, a strong corn harvest could ease some pressure. Corn output is expected to rise by 2% to 16.8 million tonnes in 2026, which may help stabilize food prices. Still, analysts warn that risks remain, as wheat products form a key part of the food basket.
The shift away from wheat highlights how rising costs and global tensions continue to shape planting decisions and food supply in the region.
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