South Africa to import 1.74M tonnes of wheat in 2025/26 as domestic supply falls short
The projected import volume marks a slight decline from the 1.83 million tonnes imported in 2024/25
SOUTH AFRICA – South Africa is set to import approximately 1.74 million tonnes of wheat in the 2025/26 marketing year (MY), starting October 3, to meet nearly half of its annual consumption needs, according to agricultural trade reports.
South Africa is a net wheat importer, and 3 October marked the first week of the new 2025-26 marketing year. The country has already imported 20,362 tonnes this season, with Australia (52%), Lithuania (43%), and Poland (5%) as the primary suppliers.
The projected import volume marks a slight decline from the 1.83 million tonnes imported in 2024/25, driven by a modest uptick in domestic wheat production, forecast at 2.03 million tonnes.
However, this falls well short of the nation’s estimated 3.8 million tonnes of annual wheat consumption, highlighting South Africa’s ongoing reliance on foreign wheat to feed its population.
South Africa’s wheat imports have surged since the 2003/04 MY, when they crossed the one-million-tonne threshold, up from an average of 458,000 tonnes annually before then.
The increase stems from high domestic demand and a steady decline in wheat-planted areas, which have remained below one million hectares since 1997/98. Low profitability and challenging climatic conditions, particularly in the Free State, have driven this trend.
Following the deregulation of agricultural markets, South African farmers have faced stiff global competition, with only a few regions, like the Western Cape and irrigated zones in the Northern Cape, Free State, Limpopo, and North West, remaining viable for high-quality wheat production.
Despite these challenges, wheat yields have improved significantly, rising from below 2 tonnes per hectare in 1997/98 to 3.8 tonnes per hectare in 2024/25, thanks to advancements in farming techniques.
With domestic production unable to keep pace with demand, South Africa’s reliance on imports underscores the need for strategic agricultural planning.
Recently, the South African Reserve Bank’s balance of payments report revealed that South Africa’s trade surplus has fallen sharply, dropping by R34 billion (US$1.89 billion) in a single quarter, largely due to weaker mining outputs and a notable decline in maize exports.
The surplus declined from R211 billion (US$11.72 billion) in the first quarter of 2025 to R177.1 billion (US$9.84 billion) in the second quarter, raising concerns over the performance of one of the nation’s most important agricultural commodities.
Agriculture Minister John Steenhuisen expressed particular concern about maize, a staple crop that is central to both food security and foreign exchange earnings.
“The observed decline in maize export value during the second quarter reflects a combination of volume constraints, softer international prices, and rising trade frictions globally,” Steenhuisen said.
“This is not only a concern for the balance of payments, but also for the farmers, agribusinesses, and rural communities whose livelihoods depend on stable and expanding export demand,” he added.
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