Russia to export 57M tons of grain in MY 2024-25

RUSSIA – According to Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut, Russia aims to export a total of 57 million tons of grain during the ongoing agricultural season from July 2024 to June 2025.

Speaking at the Russian Agriculture Summit in Moscow, Lut highlighted that despite challenges such as drought and floods, the country managed to harvest 128 million tons of grain last year, making this the fifth-largest grain harvest in Russia’s history.

“We expect to reach 130 million tons, as planned at the beginning of the season,” Lut said, adding that final data would be released by the Federal State Statistics Service in March.

Lut noted that in the first half of the current season, Russia had already exported 37 million tons of grain. The country remains a major global grain supplier, with its export figures reflecting stable agricultural output.

However, this season’s projected 57 million tons of exports is lower than the previous season’s total of 72 million tons, indicating a possible impact of climatic and logistical factors.

Lut announced that this decline in grain exports from last year’s figure to the current projection represented a drop of 20% and can be primarily attributed to adverse weather. This is a significant decrease for the world’s leading wheat exporter.

Exports of grain represent one of Moscow’s chief sources of foreign currency income, generating $15.5 billion in revenues in 2023.

Despite these fluctuations, Russia continues to maintain a strong presence in the global grain market. The government’s agricultural policies, combined with technological advancements in farming, are expected to support production and export levels in the coming years.

Lut highlighted the importance of protecting the domestic market by enforcing a 70% reduction in export quotas for the season’s second half. This move proves Russia’s commitment to food security, amid challenges in its traditional breadbasket regions.

Despite reducing seed imports by 60%, Russia remains reliant on foreign seeds. Lut called for a focus on domestic seed production, emphasizing that quality improvements are essential to ensure sustainability in the agriculture sector.

The minister also pointed to potential new markets for Russian agricultural products, including China for soy exports and opportunities in rice exports.

The Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) said that Russian farmers’ woes have been exacerbated by lack of access to quality seeds and Western equipment.

The head of the Russian Grain Union, Arkady Zlochevsky, said the yield from domestic seeds is 20%–30% lower than that of imported ones.

Russian agricultural forecasting company ProZerno has reported that in January, farmers exported 42% less grain than a year earlier.

In addition to the weather and lack of foreign seeds, producers have been hit by grain export duties introduced in 2021.

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