South Africa eyes China as record soybean harvest lifts export outlook

SOUTH AFRICA – South Africa could begin exporting part of its growing soybean surplus to China during the 2026/2027 marketing year as record production and improved trade access create fresh opportunities for the country’s agricultural sector.

Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), said the country’s larger soybean harvest could support exports once local demand is met. His comments followed the latest production outlook released on July 29.

The Crop Estimates Committee expects South Africa to harvest 3 million tonnes of soybeans in 2026, up 7% from the previous season. The forecast marks the largest soybean crop on record for the country.

Grain SA also expects soybean exports to reach 280,000 tonnes during the 2026/2027 marketing year, compared with 245,000 tonnes in the previous season.

China has become a more attractive market after introducing duty free access on 100% of tariff lines for 53 African countries with diplomatic relations, including South Africa, from May 1, 2026.

“In South Africa, we want to strengthen our access to the Chinese market for many agricultural products. The recently signed China-Africa Framework for Shared Prosperity, which reduces tariffs on goods to zero, provides us with a tremendous opportunity for access for a wide variety of agricultural products,” said Sihlobo.

Trade Map data shows South Africa exported an average of US$100 million worth of soybeans each year between 2018 and 2025, with exports reaching a high of US$389 million in 2022. China did not feature among the country’s soybean buyers during that period. Most exports went to neighbouring markets such as Zimbabwe, Eswatini and Mozambique.

Before exports can begin, South Africa must secure the required Chinese health approvals and show it can supply consistent and competitive volumes in a market dominated by Brazil, the United States, Argentina and Uruguay. In 2025, China imported nearly US$50 billion worth of soybeans.

The soybean outlook comes as South Africa continues to benefit from another strong grain season. The country’s 2025 to 2026 maize harvest is expected to reach a record 17.4 million tonnes, while total grain and oilseed production has climbed to 21.5 million tonnes.

The larger harvests have also helped ease pressure on food prices. While South Africa’s overall consumer inflation rose to 5% in June from 3% in February, food inflation fell to 1.4%, its lowest level in almost 16 years.

“Grains were among the key products underpinning the moderation in consumer food price inflation,” said Sihlobo.

Corné Louw, Head of Applied Economics at Grain SA, said good rainfall and continued use of genetically modified crops and precision farming have supported higher yields.

“With grain farming, it is all about moisture retention, especially in South Africa, as we are a semi arid country,” said Louw.

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