Egypt, Indonesia set for close race as world’s top wheat importer in 2025/2026
USDA forecasts both countries will import about 13 million tons as demand stays high.
EGYPT – Global wheat trade will see a tight race in the 2025/2026 season as Egypt and Indonesia compete for the title of the world’s largest wheat importer.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects both countries to import about 13 million tons of wheat by the end of the marketing season next June. This level places the two markets at the center of global wheat demand and strengthens their role in shaping trade flows.
Egypt remains Africa’s largest wheat consumer and ranks among the biggest buyers in the world. The country relies heavily on wheat to support its subsidized bread program, which supplies baladi bread to millions of citizens.
USDA forecasts show that Egypt could set a new import record if purchases reach 13 million tons. The country has already imported more than 12 million tons in each of the past two years. Population growth continues to push demand higher as the country now has more than 108 million people.
Local production will rise slightly in the coming season. Farmers will likely harvest about 9.2 million tons in 2025/2026 after the government expanded planted areas and offered attractive purchase prices. However, this output will still fall short of the country’s projected consumption of more than 20 million tons.
Indonesia also plans to increase wheat purchases after a slower year. The country almost entirely depends on imports because it produces very little wheat domestically.
USDA data shows that Indonesia imported about 10.4 million tons in the previous season. Feed demand dropped and buyers adjusted stocks during that period. In the upcoming season, stronger demand from the milling and feed sectors could push imports back up to about 13 million tons.
Together, Egypt and Indonesia could account for close to 12 percent of global wheat trade. Major exporters such as Russia, the European Union, Australia and the United States will closely watch demand from these two markets.
Imports shift as prices rise
Recent data also shows some changes in Egypt’s wheat trade. The country imported about 13.2 million tons in 2025, an 8 percent drop from the previous year. Higher global prices and stronger local supply both influenced the decline. Wheat prices reached about US$250 per ton in 2025.
“Imports have been affected by the decline in local demand for fino bread due to the decline in citizens’ purchasing power,” said Hisham Suleiman, director of Mediterranean Star Trading and Grain Import Company.
Government purchases also fell. Authorities reduced state imports by 15 percent to about 4.5 million tons. At the same time, Egypt collected about 4 million tons of locally produced wheat in the 2025 harvest, an increase of about 18 percent from the previous season.
Officials aim to keep expanding domestic procurement as part of efforts to reduce reliance on foreign wheat in the coming years.
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