Thai rice exports face increasing competition from India
In response to the anticipated decline, the Thai Rice Exporters Association and the Ministry of Commerce have set a lower export target of 7.5 million tonnes for 2025. This adjustment reflects the expected impact of India‘s resumption of rice exports and a stronger Thai baht.
THAILAND – Thailand’s rice exports from January to March 2025 faced significant challenges due to the influx of Indian rice into the global market, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
During this period, Thai rice exports totalled 1.8 million tonnes, a 27% decrease compared to the same time last year.
The FAS noted that relatively more expensive Thai white rice now faces a more competitive global environment.
Since April 15, all grades of Thai rice have experienced some price fluctuations but have shown an overall upward trend.
The rising prices of Hom Mali rice indicate strong demand for this high-quality variety amid uncertainty in global rice trading.
In the first quarter of 2025, Thailand’s rice exports to the United States increased, particularly for Hom Mali and other aromatic varieties.
This surge is primarily attributed to expectations of rising U.S. tariffs, prompting traders to accelerate their orders to stock up at current prices.
Additionally, a growing demand for rice among Hispanic consumers in the United States, as reported by Thai traders, contributed to the increase in imports.
In November 2024, the Indian government announced it would resume non-basmati white rice exports with a minimum floor price of $490 per tonne, ending a ban that had been in place since July 2023.
India, the world’s second-largest rice producer, is projecting its exports to reach 24 million tonnes this year, up from 14 million tonnes in 2023-24.
Meanwhile, Thailand had a record export of 9.8 million tonnes in the previous year but is forecasted to ship 7.5 million tonnes this year.
At the start of January, India’s rice stocks hit a record level, reaching eight times the government’s target.
In 2024, Thailand saw a robust increase in rice exports during the first nine months of the year (January to September), with a 22% rise in volume and a 45.8% increase in value compared to the same period the previous year.
Pol. Lt. Col. Charoen Laothamatas, President of the Rice Exporters Association of Thailand, stated that Thailand is now ranked second in global rice exports, following India, and is ahead of Vietnam, Pakistan, and the United States.
According to Laothamatas, Thailand exported 7.45 million tonnes of rice from January to September, with a value of 172.019 billion baht (approximately US$5.1 billion).
The growth in exports was led by white rice, Thailand’s top-performing category, which saw a 42% increase in shipments, totaling 4.7 million tonnes.
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