Kenya warns of rice supply shock ahead of court ruling on duty-free imports

KENYA – Kenya’s Ministry of Agriculture has warned of a possible food crisis as the country awaits a High Court ruling on the legality of duty-free rice imports, citing tightening supplies, climate pressures and rising food prices.

The ruling is expected on January 29, 2026, and comes at a time when domestic rice production remains structurally low while consumption continues to rise.

In a statement, Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe said the outcome of the case could disrupt the rice market and worsen food insecurity if import flows are constrained further.

 “The ruling will carry real consequences for food prices, household budgets and the constitutional right to food,” he said, adding that prolonged uncertainty could aggravate vulnerabilities already created by erratic rainfall and climate-related stress.

Rice has become an increasingly important staple in Kenya, particularly in urban centres and arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), where it is often preferred due to ease of preparation and longer shelf life compared with other staples.

However, domestic production accounts for less than 20 per cent of national consumption, leaving the country heavily dependent on imports from Asia and regional suppliers.

According to Ministry estimates, Kenya’s rice deficit is projected to exceed 380,000 metric tonnes by early 2026.

Demand between January and June is estimated at around 750,000 tonnes, reflecting population growth, urbanisation and changing dietary patterns.

The Ministry warned that any disruption to imports could fuel price volatility, with spillover effects into other staples such as maize, which is already under pressure from uneven rainfall and higher input costs.

The warning follows a decision by the High Court in Kerugoya, which declined to allow the withdrawal of a petition challenging the government’s duty-free rice import programme.

The court held that the case raises issues of public interest, including national food policy, farmer livelihoods and consumer welfare, and should therefore be heard on its merits even after the original petitioners sought to step aside.

The case was initially filed in August 2025 by the Farmers Party, which challenged a Gazette Notice issued on July 28, 2025 authorising the duty-free importation of up to 500,000 tonnes of grade-one rice.

The petition alleged that the National Treasury and the Ministry of Agriculture bypassed public participation requirements and exceeded their mandate under the East African Community Customs Management Act. In December 2025, the Farmers Party applied to withdraw the case.

Following the court’s decision, Kirinyaga Senator Kamau Murango and Baragwi Ward Representative David Mathenge were allowed to step in as petitioners.

They argued that permitting the withdrawal would have automatically lifted interim court orders that currently cap imports at 250,000 tonnes, potentially reopening the market to larger volumes before the legal questions are resolved.

Rice farmers, particularly in irrigation schemes such as Mwea, have repeatedly raised concerns about cheap imports undercutting farm-gate prices. At the same time, millers, traders and consumer groups argue that imports are essential to bridge persistent supply gaps and prevent sharp price spikes.

Addressing claims that locally produced rice remains unsold, the Ministry explained that the mop-up of local rice has been ongoing, lawful and conducted in good faith through the Kenya National Trading Corporation (KNTC).

Since 2020, KNTC has purchased rice from cooperatives in Mwea, Ahero, Bunyala, Kuja, Kano and Bura, among other schemes, for redistribution to public institutions such as schools, hospitals and prisons.

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