Coutry Focus:Tanzania’s Grain Drive to Become Africa’s Breadbasket
Tanzania, an East African country situated just south of the Equator, was formed as a sovereign state in 1964 through the union of the theretofore separate states of Tanganyika and Zanzibar. With a population exceeding 65 million as of 2025, the country relies heavily on agriculture as the backbone of its economy. The country boasts 44 million hectares of arable land, of which about 29.4 million hectares are suitable for irrigation, though only a fraction is currently utilized. The sector contributes nearly 30% to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employs about three-quarters of the workforce. Among agricultural commodities, grains play a pivotal role in ensuring food security, providing livelihoods, and driving economic activities. Major grains in Tanzania include maize (corn), rice, wheat, sorghum, and millet, which together form the staple diet for the majority of the population. Per capita grain intake is estimated at 150-200 kg/year. Maize alone accounts for over 80% of dietary calories, with a per capita consumption estimated at 100 kg/person.
Maize: Rising to Africa’s No. 2 Producer
Maize is the dominant grain in Tanzania, serving as a staple crop and accounting for a significant portion of the country’s export revenue. Key production regions include the Southern Highlands and the Lake Zone, where soil and climate conditions are suitable. Yields typically average 1-2 tons per hectare (t/ha), which is well below potential levels due to limited access to improved seeds, irrigation, and mechanization.
For MY 2023/24, estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) anticipated harvests at 6.1 MMT. However, recently, the Ministry of Agriculture revealed that the country harvested an impressive 11.7 million tonnes in the 2023/24 season, surpassing Nigeria to claim the title of Africa’s second-largest maize producer.
According to the April 2025 USDA report, maize production in Tanzania is forecast at 6.8 million metric tons (MMT) in 2025/26, a 3% decline (200,000 metric tons (MT)) from the prior year, and area harvested to decrease by 2.44 percent to four million hectares. Post attributes the decline primarily to below-average short rains (“Vuli”) in late 2024, input distribution delays, and pest pressure from fall armyworm. The decline is also driven by farmers shifting to alternative crops due to low maize prices, which ranged from US$0.59 to US$1.41 per kilogram. Maize consumption was forecasted at 6.08 MMT in MY 2024/25, a decrease from 6.3 MMT the prior year, due to high prices and substitution with other staples.
Maize Production in Tanzania MY 2015/16-MY2025/26
Source: USDA report
Tanzania remains a net exporter of maize to neighboring countries, especially Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Malawi, becoming a crucial part of the regional food supply chain. In 2023, Tanzania exported US$71.7M of Corn, making it the 36th largest exporter of Corn (out of 158) in the world. For 2025/26, the USDA projects corn exports to decrease by 10 per cent year-over-year, reaching approximately 900,000 metric tons. Post attributes the decline to the fact that traders are facing significant challenges in obtaining export permits through official channels, as the procedures have become increasingly stringent and bureaucratic.
Rice: Staples under pressure from urban demand shifts
Tanzania is the largest rice producer in East Africa, producing nearly twice the combined output of other East African countries like Kenya, Uganda, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The crop is Tanzania’s second most important grain, and the government has identified it as a strategic crop. The strong output is driven by initiatives like the National Rice Development Strategy (NRDS), which aims for even greater output, targeting 8.8 million tonnes by 2030.
Rice Production in Tanzania MY 2015/16-MY2025/26
Source: USDA report
Primary production areas are Morogoro and Mbeya in the Southern Highlands, where water availability supports paddy cultivation. In 2015/16, rice was cultivated on 1.15 million hectares, producing about 2.94 million tonnes of paddy (rough rice) at an average yield of 2.54 tonnes per hectare. By 2019/20, yields had improved significantly to 3.30 tonnes per hectare, pushing rough production to 3.48 million tonnes even though the cultivated area slightly declined to 1.05 million hectares. Current yields range from 2-3 t/ha, reflecting progress but still below global benchmarks due to inconsistent access to quality inputs and infrastructure.
Production for 2025/26 is projected at 2.51 MMT (milled basis), slightly below the previous year due to delayed planting and disease pressure, particularly bacterial leaf blight. However, the country remains a net exporter of rice to neighboring countries, with the USDA projecting rice exports to decline significantly by 50 percent to 50,000 metric tons year-on-year, down from 100,000 metric tons in the previous marketing year 2024/25 on stringent bureaucratic export procedures implemented by the Government of Tanzania since 2023.
Tanzania export share of rice to the neighboring countries
Source: FAOSTAT, 2021
Wheat production in Tanzania is relatively minor compared to other grains, with the country heavily reliant on imports to meet demand. According to USDA data, the five-year average (2020/21–2024/25) for wheat production stands at 77,000 metric tons (MT), harvested from an average area of 61,000 hectares (ha), with an average yield of 1.27 MT/ha. The USDA forecasts a 10% year-on-year increase in 2025/26, reaching 80,000 MT, driven by government initiatives to boost output.
Annual demand is around 1 million MT, with consumption projected to rise by 4% to 1.175 million MT in 2023/24, fueled by population growth, urbanization, and tourism. In 2023, Tanzania imported US$466 million worth of wheat, ranking as the 38th largest importer globally. Import volumes are estimated at 800,000–1 million MT annually, with a bill of about US$221 million. USDA projects a 15.4 percent increase in wheat imports for MY 2025/26, reaching 1.5 million MT to meet rising domestic demand. The Tanzanian government, however, has set ambitious plans to scale up production to 1 million tons by 2025 through the adoption of improved seeds and enhanced agricultural practices.
Sorghum
Sorghum is a drought-resistant grain well-suited to Tanzania’s arid and semi-arid regions, providing a reliable food source in areas with unreliable rainfall. Over 70% of production is used domestically for human consumption (as flour for porridge or ugali) and animal feed, with the remainder for brewing and minor industrial uses.
Annual production hovers around 0.8-1 MMT, forming part of the combined sorghum and millet output of 1.5-2 MMT. Key regions include central Tanzania, such as Dodoma and Singida, where it thrives on marginal lands. According to FAOSTAT data, sorghum production in Tanzania has shown fluctuations but remained relatively stable in recent years. In 2023, production reached 737,800 metric tons from an area of 683,900 hectares, yielding about 1.08 metric tons per hectare. This represents a slight decline from earlier estimates, such as around 1 million metric tons in 2020, partly due to erratic rainfall and pest pressures. The Tanzania Ministry of Agriculture’s Annual Report for 2023/2024 reports sorghum production at 821,922.9 tons, aligning closely with FAOSTAT figures and reflecting a broader increase in cereal output from 11.42 million tons in 2022/2023 to 18.94 million tons in 2023/2024, a 65.9% rise attributed to adequate rainfall, enhanced extension services, and greater input use.
Millet production in Tanzania is concentrated in the central and northern regions, with Dodoma accounting for 18% of the total output, Tabora for 12%, and Shinyanga for 11%. According to USDA FAS estimates, Tanzania’s millet production has averaged approximately 326,000 metric tons (MT) over the past decade, with recent figures indicating 282,000 MT in 2023/24 and a projected increase to 325,000 MT in 2024/25, representing a 15% year-on-year growth. The five-year average (2020-2024) stands at 320,000 MT, with projections for 2025/26 at 330,000 MT, a 3% increase. Production is expected to remain stable, but it faces challenges from climate change. The Ministry of Agriculture is focusing its efforts on improving seeds and irrigation to boost yields.
Challenges Facing Tanzania’s Grain Sector
The industry grapples with low mechanization, high energy costs, and post-harvest losses (up to 40%). Food safety and fortification compliance also remain inconsistent. Aflatoxin contamination and inadequate storage affect quality. However, the Tanzanian Initiative for Preventing Aflatoxin Contamination (TANIPAC), launched five years ago, is on the brink of completion, offering renewed hope for safer grains in Tanzania and the broader East African region. This comprehensive project, part of Tanzania’s Development Vision 2025 (TDV 2025), was initiated to address the persistent issue of aflatoxin contamination, which has plagued Tanzania’s maize and other key crops, affecting both local consumption and exports.
Grain Storage Capacity: Scaling up for Surplus Management
Tanzania’s current grain storage infrastructure is managed primarily by the National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA), which operates 30 facilities with a total capacity of approximately 286,000 metric tons (MT) as of 2024. This represents an increase from 246,000 MT in 2023, reflecting incremental improvements but still falling short of national needs. The country plans to reach 3 million tons storage capacity by 2030.
The government has prioritised expansion through a US$450 million investment to boost NFRA’s capacity to 1.1 million tons by mid-2025. In August 2024, the National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) of Tanzania inaugurated a state-of-the-art silo complex in Babati District, Manyara Region, marking a significant milestone in the country’s efforts to enhance crop processing and storage capabilities. Valued at TZS 18 billion (US$7.2 million), this ultramodern facility is designed to handle various crops, including maize, sunflower, barley, soybeans, and sorghum, aiming to increase storage to between 700,000 and 1,000,000 MT by June 2025.
The government, through Big Results Now (BRN is working on decentralized warehouses, each averaging 300 MT, with 275 maize-specific facilities built across eight districts. The Warehouse Receipt System (WRS) links these to credit access, benefiting over 165,000 households and reducing losses through better handling.
Balancing Traditional Mills and Industrial Growth
Tanzania’s maize milling is fragmented and less industrialized compared to Kenya’s concentrated model. The industry is overwhelmingly represented by small “posho” and micro-mills, processing staples, primarily maize, wheat, and rice. A 2022 census reported 33,721 mills nationwide, primarily small-to-medium-scale, producing 95% of maize flour.
Wheat milling capacity has grown to 10,000 metric tons (MT) daily by 2022, though reliance on imports. Rice milling is thriving, with Tanzania leading East Africa in production (2.4 million MT in 2023/24), exporting to Uganda and Kenya.
Key players include Bakhresa Grain Milling, with its Azam brand and 120,000 MT storage capacity, and Mohammed Enterprises (MeTL), which processes 300 tons of maize and 500 tons of wheat daily. Camel Flour Mills (650 MT/day) and Marenga Millers (50 MT maize flour, 75 MT feed) are also significant, alongside the government’s Cereals and Other Products Board, investing US$8.7 million in new processing plants.
The feed industry, fueled by maize and sunflower, supports Tanzania’s expanding poultry, livestock, and aquaculture sectors. Feed demand is projected to reach 9 million MT by 2035, driven by tourism recovery and policy changes like the 2017 removal of an 18% feed tax.
This article appeared in ISSUE 15 of MILLING MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA MAGAZINE. You can read this and the entire magazine HERE
