NIGERIA – The Nigerian government’s decision to temporarily suspend import duties on wheat, rice, and corn is expected to increase grain imports for the 2024-25 marketing year, according to the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
According to USDA, Nigeria, the largest country in Africa with a population of 232 million, will see wheat imports rise to 4.7 million tonnes in the 2024-25 marketing year, a 6% increase from earlier projections in April.
Despite this growth, the figure remains lower than the 5 million tonnes imported in 2023-24. Domestically, wheat production is expected to stagnate at 120,000 tonnes, unchanged from the previous year.
The FAS attributes this static production level to multiple factors, including ongoing insecurity in key wheat-producing areas, elevated fertilizer and seed prices, and the broader cost-of-living crisis, which has hindered farmers from expanding wheat cultivation.
Even though the government’s zero-duty policy aims to boost wheat imports, weak demand from millers and consumers, coupled with the temporary nature of the waiver, may limit the extent of this growth.
Wheat demand is expected to drop to 4.4 million tonnes in 2024-25, down from 4.7 million tonnes in the previous marketing year.
Conversely, corn production in Nigeria is expected to grow to 11.68 million tonnes in 2024-25, a 6% increase from previous estimates.
The surge in production is largely driven by an expansion in planted area, spurred by higher corn prices that have incentivized farmers.
Corn remains a crucial ingredient in Nigeria’s poultry feed industry, with approximately 45% of the domestically produced corn used for animal feed, particularly in poultry production.
Feed accounts for nearly 70% of total production costs for poultry farmers, with corn being the most essential component. As domestic corn production grows, imports are projected to slightly increase to 110,000 tonnes, up from 100,000 tonnes in the previous year.
Rice production declines, but imports set to rise
Domestic rice production, however, is forecast to decline to 7.5 million tonnes in 2024-25, a 3% decrease from earlier estimates.
Insecurity in rice-growing regions, suboptimal weather conditions, and high input costs are contributing to this drop. Production for 2023-24 is expected to be higher, at 8.5 million tonnes.
Despite the reduction in domestic production, rice consumption in Nigeria is expected to rise, driven by the relative affordability of rice compared to other staple foods. The FAS report forecasts that rice consumption will increase to 7.4 million tonnes, up 3% from previous estimates.
To bridge the gap between demand and domestic supply, Nigeria is expected to import 1.9 million tonnes of rice in 2024-25, representing a 21% increase from earlier projections. However, this is still slightly lower than the 2 million tonnes imported in the previous year.
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